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  • Predicting Sales Returns

    The Keeneland sales are critical to the US bloodstock industry. When analysing the sales, industry experts often focus on the strength of the buying bench which depends on the presence or otherwise of European, Arab, Japanese and domestic buyers. The experts debate the impact of variables such as changes to exchange rates or tax charges, the size and perceived quality of the catalogue, or tinkering with the sales structure through select sessions. The presence of the offspring of star stallions or fashionable stallions may also be invoked as a way of explaining the likely sales outcome. These factors are real and do have an impact but the best indicator currently available is much more straightforward-The Dow Jones Index. I consider the issue in detail in the September edition of International Thoroughbred magazine. To read the article click here

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  • The importance of birth dates

    Studies have shown that a horses birth date has only a marginal impact on its subsequent racing performance. It follows that it should therefore be of little relevance to the sales price achieved.  I put this assumption to the test in this month’s International Thoroughbred magazine.  To read the article follow the link http://issuu.com/international_thoroughbred/docs/aug_issuu and go to pages 44-46

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  • Pour Moi

    Pour Moi’s win in the Derby was further proof that Montjeu is the pre-eminent sire of Derby colts in Europe. Galileo is enjoying a stellar year but Montjeu is still to my mind a better bet to throw a top middle distance colt.  Pour Moi’s performance at Epsom was all the more meritorious as he sweated up quite a lot lot beforehand and Mickael Barzalona stood up in the irons having perhaps misjudged the finishing line.  The sustained run of  Pour Moi was impressive as he made up a lot of ground in the last two furlongs and it reinforced the visual impression he gave in the Prix Greffulhe of a horse with a serious turn of foot.

    Pedigree Assessment

    Montjeu’s major Derby record is seriously impressive. Below is a full list of his Derby and Irish Derby runners to date. Six individual Derby winners since his first crop of three year olds in 2005 (3 Epsom and 3 Irish) is an exceptional record. Breeders have their reservations about Montjeu based on concerns over temperament and the relative failure of his fillies, but the regularity of his production of top class colts should outweigh these concerns.

    Dam- Gwynn

    Pour Moi’s dam Gwynn was unraced but she comes from an outstanding family and it is easy to see why she was sent to Montjeu.  The Sadler’s Wells Darshaan cross has produced countless top class individuals and Gwynn herself produced Gagnoa (by Sadler’s Wells) who was a dual Group 3 winner and twice a runner up in Group 1 company (the Prix Saint Alary over 12 furlongs and the 10 furlong Prix de Diane aka the French Oaks). Pour Moi’s second dam Victoress was a winner in France but an unremarkable broodmare, producing just 2 winners from 10 foals.  However once we hit the third dam, the winning Northern Dancer filly Royal Statute , the family starts to produce some top class individuals.   Royal Statute is the dam of Awaasif (by the 1974 Derby winner Snow Knight) a winner of the Yorkshire Oaks and close third in the Prix de l’Arc.  At stud she was the dam of a classic winner in Snow Bride (by Blushing Groom) who was awarded the 1989 Oaks on the demotion of Aliysa (ironically by Darshan) for a failed drugs test.  At stud Snow Bride become dam of the 1995 Derby, King George and Arc winner Lammtarra (by Nijinksy) so this is a family with plenty of classic connections.

    Konafa (by Damascus)  another daughter of Queens Statute was placed in the 1000 Guineas and started her own dynasty. She is dam of Korveya (by Riverman) a Group 3 winner who achieved renown as dam of champion two year old and French Guineas winner Hector Protector (by Woodman), 1000 Guineas and Champion Stakes winner Bosra Sham (also by Woodman) and French Guineas winner (Shanghai by Procida).

    Pour Moi’s 4th dam Queens Statute was unraced but was the dam of Canadian Oaks winner Menedict by (Menetrier) and a Candadian champion in Dance Act (also by Northern Dancer). Unsurprisingly given the names involved Queens Statute and Royal Statute were part of E P Taylors broodmare band at Windfields farm.

    Conclusion

    Pour Moi’s family has plenty of top class connections. Her dam Gwynn has already shown herself to be capable of producing a Group 1 performer to Montjeu’s sire, Sadler’s Wells. Montjeu is an outstanding sire of Derby class colts and the stated intention for Pour Moi is now the Prix de l’Arc a race in which his trainer Andre Fabre has a superb record. There looks to be a very strong crop of four year olds on the scene this year but they will have a worthy adversary in Pour Moi.

     Epsom Derby
     Year  Horse  Dam (Broodmare sire)  Position
     2005  Motivator  Out West (Gone West)  1st
     2005  Walk in the Park  Classic Park (Robellino)  2nd
     2005  King’s Quay  Glen Rosie(Mujtahid)  10th
     2006  Mountain  Skidmore Girl (Vaguely Noble)  8th
     2006  Papal Bull  Mialuna (Zafonic)  10th
     2006  Snoqualmie Boy  Seattle Ribbon (Seattle Dancer)  16th
     2007  Authorized  Funsie (Saumarez)  1st
     2007  Anton Chekhov  By Charter (Shirley Heights)  12th
     2008  Washington Irving  Shouk (Shirley Heights)  5th
     2008  Alessandro Volta  Ventura Highway (Machiavellian)  6th
     2008  Frozen Fire  Flamingo Sea (Woodman)  11th
     2008  King of Rome  Amizette (Forty Niner)  12th
     2009  Fame and Glory  Gryada (Shirley Heights)  2nd
     2009  Montaff  Meshedd (Gulch)  12th
     2010  Jan Vermeer  Shadow Song (Pennekamp)  4th
     2010  Victor Delight  Apache Star (Arazi)  7th
     2011  Pour Moi  Gwynn (Darshaan)  1st
     2011  Recital  Dibenoise (Kendor)  6th
     
     Irish Derby
     Year  Horse  Dam (Broodmare sire)  Position
     2005  Hurricane Run  Hold On (Surumu)  1st
     2005  Scorpion  Ardmelody (Law Society)  2nd
     2005  Walk in the Park  Classic Park (Robellino)  8th
     2006  Mountain  Skidmore Girl (Vaguely Noble)  6th
     2006  Land Before Time  Last Spin (Unfuwain)  13th
     2008  Frozen Fire  Flamingo Sea (Woodman)  1st
     2008  Alessandro Volta  Ventura Highway (Machiavellian)  4th
     2008  Washington Irving  Shouk (Shirley Heights)  11th
     2009  Fame and Glory  Gryada (Shirley Heights)  1st
     2009  Drumbeat  Maskaya (Machiavellian)  11th
     2010  Jan Vermeer  Shadow Song (Pennekamp)  3rd
     2010  Victor Delight  Apache Star (Arazi)  7th

    2005

    POUR MOI (IRE) 2008 c b

    Montjeu
    (IRE) 1996
    Sadler’s
    Wells (USA) 1981
    Northern
    Dancer (CAN) 1961
    Nearctic
    (USA) 1954
    Natalma
    (USA) 1957
    Fairy
    Bridge (USA) 1975
    Bold
    Reason (USA) 1968
    Special
    (USA) 1969
    Floripedes
    (FR) 1985
    Top
    Ville (IRE) 1976
    High
    Top (IRE) 1969
    Sega
    Ville (USA) 1968
    Toute
    Cy (FR) 1979
    Tennyson
    (FR) 1970
    Adele
    Toumignon (IRE) 1971
    Gwynn
    (GB) 1997
    Darshaan
    (GB) 1981
    Shirley
    Heights (GB) 1975
    Mill
    Reef (USA) 1968
    >Hardiemma
    (GB) 1969
    Delsy
    (FR) 1972
    Abdos
    (FR) 1959
    Kelty
    (FR) 1965
    Victoress
    (USA) 1984
    Conquistador
    Cielo (USA) 1979
    Mr
    Prospector (USA) 1970
    K
    D Princess (USA) 1971
    Royal
    Statute (USA) 1969
    Northern
    Dancer (CAN) 1961
    Queen’s
    Statute (USA) 1954

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  • Sadler’s Wells- a tribute

    It’s almost a month since Sadler’s Wells died.  He was outstanding in every respect as racehorse, as a sire, as a broodmare sire and now as a sire of sires.  A book would be required to do proper justice to his impact (and I don’t have time for that) , so I will have to restrict myself to selecting a few of his more remarkable achievements, listed in no particular order

    1. That first crop of colts.

    In total his first crop  was numbered in the mid fifties of which just less than half were colts.  For six of them (In the Wings (ex High Hawk by Shirley Heights) , Old Vic (ex Cockade by Derring-Do), Prince of Dance(ex Sun Princess by English Prince) , Scenic ( ex Idyllic by Foolish Pleasure) , French Glory (ex Dunette by Hard to Beat) and Braashee ex Krakow by Malinowski) to win Group 1’s is extraordinary.  Batshoof (ex Steel Habit by Habitat) was also in that crop and he won the Tattersalls Rogers Gold Cup and Prince Of Wales Stakes which were both then Group 2’s but are now elevated to Group 1 status.  Dolpour (ex Dumka by Kashmir) won the Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes and was only beaten a head in the Champion Stakes. In addition the unraced Accordion (ex Sound of Success by Successor)  subsequently found fame as a jumps sire. It was the most sensational first crop that could be imagined.

    2. His Consistency

    Its not easy becoming champion sire even with the benefit of large books of quality mares.  Sadler’s Wells was champion Anglo-Irish sire on 14 occasions- an all time record.  That Highflyer’s previous record had stood since the 18th century gives a sense of that achievement.  That he sired at least one Group 1 winner in each of his first 18 crops is also truly remarkable. His numbers currently stand at 2259 foals of racing age with 293 stakes winners (13%).

    3. His Irish Derby Record

    Sadler’s Wells has sired the winner of every Irish and English classic. His record in the Irish Derby is however particularly impressive. Six winners (Old Vic ex Cockade by Derring-Do), Salsabil (ex Flame of Tara by Artaius), Dream Well (ex Soul Dream by Alleged),  Montjeu (ex Floripedes by Top Ville),  Galileo (ex Urban Sea by Miswaki) and High Chapparal (ex Kasora by Darshaan) only tell part of the story. The 1999 edition saw him have a 1-2-3 courtesy of Montjeu, Daliapour (ex Dalara by Doyoun) and Tchaikovsky (ex Crystal Spray by Beldale Flutter) and this was bettered in 2002 when High Chapparal was followed home by Sholokhov (ex La Meilleure by Lord Gayle), Ballingarry (ex Flamenco Wave by Desert Wine) and Nysaean (ex Irish Arms by Irish River). His sons have kept up the good work with In the Wings siring the 1995 winner Winged Love (ex J’ai deux Amores by Top Ville), Galileo siring the 2007 winner Soldier of Fortune (ex Affianced by Erin’s Isle) and the 2010 winner Cape Blanco (ex Laurel Delight by Presidium) and Montjeu has 3 winners courtesy of Hurricane Run (ex Hold On by Surumu), Frozen Fire (ex Flamingo Sea by Woodman) and Fame and Glory (ex Gryada by Shirley Heights).

    4. His record as sire of sires

    This was once open to question- it is not any more.  Galileo has taken over his mantle as the dominant European sire and Montjeu remains the sire most likely to sire a 12 furlong Derby winner.  Barathea and In the Wings did respectably, Fort Wood produced some outstanding individuals in South Africa,  High Chapparal has done exceptionally well in the Antipodes and most surprisingly of all was the success of El Prado in the US- surprising given the abject failure of Sadler’s Wells own offspring when tried on dirt. In addition his sons such as Old Vic, Accordion, Oscar, King’s Theatre, Dr Massini and Kayf Tara have all had a major impact on the National Hunt world.

    5. His National Hunt Record

    Sadler’s Wells was an outstanding jumps sire.  Istabraq (ex Betty’s Secret by Secretariat) is of course one of the immortals but he was backed up by Theatreworld(ex Chamonis by Affirmed), Pridwell (ex Glowing with Pride by Ile de Bourbon), Synchronised (ex Mayasta by Bob Back) and many others that have seen him consistently feature in the top ten jumps sires.

    6. His record as broodmare sire

    Six times champion broodmare sire, to date he has 235 stakes winners in that capacity -more than any other sire in the history of the pattern.  Some of the multiple Group 1 winners produced by his daughters include Workforce (King’s Best ex Soviet Moon) , Conduit(Dalakhani ex Well Ahead), Music Note (AP Indy ex Note Musicale,  Henrythenavigator (Kingmambo ex Seqoyah). Youmzain (Sinndar ex Sadima),  Peeping Fawn (Danehill ex Maryinsky),  Divine Proportions (Kingmambo ex Myth to Reality), American Post (Bering ex Wells Fargo), Whipper (Miesque’s Son ex Myth to Reality), and Musical Chimes (In Excess ex Note Musicale).

    7.  Leading the European renaissance

    It’s easy to forget that at the time of his retirement, Europe was not the natural home for a top class stallion prospect. His contemporaries and paternal half brothers El Gran Senor and Secreto both went to stud in the States. The lure of the dollar and the yen meant that Europe had already lost or could no longer retain the best stallion prospects.  The best mares inevitably follow the best stallions leading to a further downward spiral. The success of Sadler’s Wells and his earnings put Coolmore in a very powerful position with regard to stallion acquisition and they utilised that advantage to the maximum.  His sons have continued that legacy- it is not unreasonable to claim that he can take credit for the current powerful state of the European stallion ranks.

    One response to “Sadler’s Wells- a tribute”

    1. mike Avatar
      mike

      Well done. Any theory on why he was so remarkably successful?

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