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After a few years hiatus, I’ve found time to start writing again. My first topic is Night of Thunder who looks destined for the very top. His 2020 fee has been raised to €25,000, having covered at Dalham Hall for £15,000 for the past two years. He is likely to be heavily oversubscribed so you should call in whatever favours you can, to access him at that fee. He retired at a fee of €30,000 and if that was justified as an unproven stallion prospect, then €25,000 after a sensational first crop has to be the best value out there. If Coolmore stood him, he would be at least €50,000. I would be surprised, if he not covering at a six figure fee within a few years.

Night of Thunder’s Racing Career:

Night of Thunder made his debut in October 2013 , winning a 6 furlong Goodwood Auction Maiden by 6 lengths. He ran again two weeks later in a Listed race at Doncaster, this time by 3 lengths. Both races were on soft ground. It was a very satisfactory first season for a horse that Richard Hannon Snr was quoted as being all about his three year old season. He was best priced at 20-1 for the Guineas after his Doncaster victory.

However that price didn’t look very attractive following the first run of his three year old campaign in the Greenham Stakes. He was beaten over four lengths by Kingman with no apparent excuses. He was 40-1 when he reopposed Kingman in the Guineas. Richard Hannon Jnr, had taken over the licence from his father and stable jockey Richard Hughes chose Toormore, leaving Kieran Fallon to get the ride. It was a very strong Guineas field but despite hanging near the finish, Night of Thunder won by half a length from Kingman. Subsequent Derby winner Australia was in third and the also-rans included Group One winners Charm Spirit, Toormore, Kingston Hill, The Grey Gatsby and War Command.

Kingman won his classic in the Irish Guineas and got his revenge over Night of Thunder in the St James Palace, winning by a comfortable 2.5 lengths. Kingman added two more Group 1’s that season whereas Night of Thunder suffered three defeats. He didn’t stay in the Eclipse behind Mukhadram. He ran better back at a mile finishing a close third behind Charm Spirit in the Moulin and finishing his season with a close second again behind Charm Spirit in the QEII at Ascot. At the end of the season he was rated 5 pounds inferior to Kingman and a pound inferior to Charm Spirit.

Night of Thunder was kept in training at four. The decision seemed a wise one when he won the Lockinge on his seasonal debut defeating his stable companion Toormore . The rest of the season was slightly underwhelming. He was fifth behind Solow in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and sixth behind Solow in the Sussex Stakes. His final career stats were 11 runs, 4 wins , 3 seconds and a third. He was a stakes winner at two, a classic winner at three and a Group 1 winner at 4. His Guineas win may have been slightly surprising and Kingman was a better horse than him but he still defeated him on the day that mattered.

PEDIGREE ASSESSMENT

Combining a daughter of the best stallion in Europe with the second best stallion in Europe seems like an obvious recipe for success. The feud between Coolmore and Sheikh Mohammed meant that it wasn’t tried as often as you would have expected and even now there are only 42 foals of racing age bred on this cross. Night of Thunder, a March foal was bred by Frank Dunne and fetched only 32,000 guineas as a yearling in Book 1 of the 2012 Tattersalls October sales. He must have been an underwhelming physical specimen as his dam, Forest Storm was a winner for Jim Bolger and runner up in the Listed Flame of Tara Stakes (where she started odds on) . Indeed, she earned quotes of only 20-1 for the 1000 Guineas after winning on debut by 5 lengths at the Curragh. Forest Storm had herself cost €240,000 as a foal. Her form seemed to regress after her run in the Flame of Tara Stakes and she missed most of her three year old season, before putting in three modest performances in September 2009. Night of Thunder was her first foal.

The granddam Quiet Storm was by a disappointing sire in Desert Prince but she was also a winner and Stakes placed over 10 furlongs and a mile. She eventually found herself in India where she produced a domestic classic winner to the former Charles O’Brien/Aidan O’Brien stalwart Burden of Proof. The third dam Hertford Castle was by another hugely disappointing sire in Reference Point. The fourth dam Forest Flower earned the title of European Champion Two Year Old Filly in 1987, after edging out her great rival Minstrella in the Cheveley Park Stakes (a race from which she was controversially disqualified). She trained on the win the Irish 1000 Guineas to add to her Cherry Hinton, Queen Mary and Mill Reef victories.

Overall its a solid rather than spectacular female line.

Sons of Dubawi

Until the emergence of Night of Thunder, Dubawi had yet to get an outstanding sire son. His other Guineas winner Makfi had his moments (and his son Make Believe had a good freshman crop) but he wasn’t missed on his sale to Japan), Poets Voice also had some success (notably Poets Word) but no one greatly lamented his death in 2018. Al Kazeem had fertility issues, Worthadd was disappointing at the Irish National Stud and Universal was always going to struggle to get better class mares. There are a host of his sons at the early stage in their careers so plenty of sire sons could yet emerge.

Night of Thunder Dubawi Dubai Millennium Seeking The Gold Mr Prospector Con Game Colarado Dancer Shareef Dancer Fall Aspen Zomaradah Deploy Shirley Heights Slightly Dangerous Jawaher Dancing Brave High Tern Forest Storm Galileo Sadler’s Wells Northern Dancer Fairy Bridge Urban Sea Miswaki Allegretta Quiet Storm Desert Prince Green Desert Flying Fairy Hertford Castle Reference Point Forest Flower

Night of Thunder’s First Crop

Night of Thunder’s stats to date are very impressive for a crop conceived at €30,000. There were 112 foals in that first crop. To date, he has had 51 runners with 28 winners, a winners/runners rate of 55%. There is no lack of quality either, with 7 Stakes winners including Group 2 winner Night Colours (f. ex Many Colours by Green Desert), Group 3 winners, Under The Stars (f. ex Jumeirah Palm Star by Invincible Spirit) and Pocket Square (f. ex Shared Account by Dansili). He has four Listed winners to his credit including Molatham (c. ex Cantal by Pivotal, Keep Busy (f. ex Look Busy by Danetime), Thunderous (c. ex Souviens Toi by Dalakhani) and Cacciante (c. ex Suggest by Raven’s Pass). Believers in nicks might see the above as a recommendation for Green Desert or Danehill crosses (and Night of Thunder also has two Listed placed sons with Cape Cross as broodmare sire) but I think it is just a reflection of the opportunities to date and the sample size is much too small to rely upon.

His winners have come from 5 furlongs to over a mile plus and seem versatile regarding ground. The strike rate is particularly high on good to soft ground and falls back on the all-weather but there may be other variables at play here including the lower quality of racing on the all-weather.

Conclusion and the future:

Night of Thunder has delivered lots of winners and plenty of high quality runners to date. He lacks a Group One superstar and that is possibly the reason that Darley didn’t go for a huge hike in his fee. However, his overall stats indicate that we are witnessing the emergence of an important new sire who is transmitting a lot of quality to his progeny. He improved from two to three and it would be surprising if his progeny don’t improve with age. The markets have been quick to notice his success and he had 43 yearlings sell this year for an average of 81000 guineas and a median of 48,000 guineas. I suspect we will look back on these prices as bargains in a few years time. My advice is simple- Breeders should do everything they can to use him while he is still affordable and owners/trainers should do all they can to get their hands on his progeny….

It is a pity that Charles Darwin was not a horse-racing enthusiast as he would have had no need to travel to the Galapagos islands to perfect his theories. His Origin of the Species did of course discuss ‘selective breeding’ as opposed to natural selection and he once wrote that “Some dogs and horses are ill-tempered and easily turn sulky; others are good-tempered; and these qualities are certainly inherited”. You could point to Nasrullah, Roberto and Alleged as evidence of his prescience regarding ill-tempered stallions:) Although not a racing man Darwin’s interests weren’t always scholarly and his father once admonished young Charles for caring for ‘nothing but shooting, dogs and rat-catching and you will be a disgrace to yourself and all your family’!

In the thoroughbred population it is easy to see the heritability of desirable traits.  It is perhaps difficult to think of a better example of the efficacy of the spread of desirable genes through a population than the preponderance of Northern Dancer in the worldwide thoroughbred population. For a stallion who  sired ‘only’ 635 foals and was still covering in 1987 that is a rapid dissemination of genes. The effect is much more rapid than in previous ages due to our larger stallion book sizes  and the increasingly global nature of the stallion business.  Where once we could talk about French breds or German breds, as if they were quite distinctive, this is no longer the case. There are no distinctive ‘island’ effects anymore, with thoroughbred populations developing in isolation from the rest of Europe and the world, rather we have a homogenised European thoroughbred population.

It is interesting to consider those stallions that are available to European breeders that are entirely free from the Canadian super stud. There is nothing intrinsically superior about these stallions but what is apparent is their scarcity and modest stud fees. The passing of Monsun , the retirement of Dalakhani and the decline of the Ahonoora , Forli and Sharpen Up lines has seen the ending of our best ‘free from ND’ options. The best of the few remaining options are as follows (in no particular order):

1. Nayef- 2016 fee £5000 (Gulch ex Height of Fashion by Bustino). As a four time Group 1 winner and a half brother to Nashwan and Unfuwain , there is much to like about Nayef. His stud career has been somewhat underwhelming but he had his moments. Tamayuz was a cracking miler and now has a promising commercial sire son in Sir Prancelot, . Gulch was a versatile son of Mr Prospector and Mr P will no doubt in time also become ubiquitous in US pedigrees.
2. Rio de La Plata- 2016 fee €5500 (2005 Rahy ex Express Way by Ahmad) Rated champion French two year old after a win in the Grand Criterium he was second to New Approach in the National Stakes. He was second in the French Guineas and he picked up two Group 1’s as a five year old having ran 30 times during his career. Rahy is a son of Blushing Groom who sired the likes of Fantastic Light, Noverre, Serena’s Song and Mariah’s Storm. His dam was Argentinian bred and raced. His first two year olds have performed respectably in 2016 and he is an interesting young stallion.
3. Lord of England- 2016 fee €5500 (2003 Dashing Blade ex Loveria by Los Santos). A group 1 winner at three in Germany he has compiled a respectable stud record. Dashing Blade is a son of Shirley Heights and thus Lord of England represents the Mill Reef line.
4. Tagula- 2016 fee €4000 (1993 Taufan ex Twin Island ex Standaan ) A decent two year old who won the Prix Morny he has had a long stud career made respectable by two horses much superior to himself in Canford Cliffs and current star Limato. Taufan is by Stop the Music who is by Hail to Reason. Given his age it is unclear whether he will still be active in 2017.

Amongst the National Hunt ranks there are more options including

1. Robin Des Champs 2016 fee private (1997 Garde Royale ex Relayeuse by Iron Duke). A decent hurdler but an exceptional sire with Quevega, Vautour, Sir des Champs to his credit. Garde Royale was a Group 2 winning son of Mill Reef who sired Carling on the flat.
2. Flemensfirth 2016 fee €10,000 (1992 Alleged ex Etheldreda by Diesis). A dual group 1 winner and a top national hunt sire, his sire Alleged is from the Ribot line and his dam is by Diesis who is by Sharpen Up, both once prominent sire lines now in decline.
3. Vinnie Roe 2016 fee €3000 (Definite Article ex Kayu by  Tap on Wood)- He wasn’t bred to be a stayer but he turned out to be a remarkable stayer. Definite Article is a son of Indian Ridge, a son of Ahonoora.
4. Axxos 2016 fee €1200 (2004 Monsun ex Acerbis by Rainbow Quest)- A Group 2 winner and runner up in the Grand Prix de Paris, he is like many sons of Monsun being marketed to National Hunt breeders. There are lots of sons of Monsun on the market but most tend to have dams with some element of Northern Dancer.
5. Gentlewave (2003 Monsun ex Saumerine by Saumarez). Another son of Monsun and a high quality one winner of the Italian Derby and runner up to Dylan Thomas in the Irish Derby.
6. Gamut 2016 fee €3000 (1999 Spectrum ex Greektown by Ela Mana Mou). Winner of Grand Prix de Saint Cloud , however as a late maturing type he was unlikely to find favour on the flat. Has sired Road to Riches.

With the passing of time there will be no more options. On the grounds of age I have excluded stallions such as Turgeon ( 1986 Caro ex Reiko by Targowice)and Piccolo (1991 Warning ex Woodwind by Whistling Wind). There are bargain basement options such as Sabiango (Acatenango ex Spirit of Eagles by Beaus Eagle) and Major Cadeaux (2004 Cadeaux Genereux ex Maine Lobster by Woodman)- a winner of the Bet365 mile but yet to make any impact as a sire. There are also undoubtedly others that I have overlooked.

Conclusion.

With each succeeding generation in a closed stud book, it becomes more likely that a major stallion like Northern Dancer will eventually achieve a presence in every single individual. What is remarkable, is the speed at which this has happened in European pedigrees for Northern Dancer. In Japan Sunday Silence is on his way to achieving a similar feat in an even shorter timeframe and Europe would benefit from importing some of his stallion sons and grandsons into Europe. The US has more variety and less domination by a single line. As mentioned at the outset I am not bemoaning the domination of Northern Dancer merely observing a change in equine history happening in fast forward. Darwin would have been impressed.

In terms of quality there isn’t a lot to choose between the rosters at Dalham and Kildangan. Dubawi is the key difference between the sides and Dalham currently has more elite stallions (Dubawi, Golden Horn and New Approach) than Kildangan. However the Irish operation probably has more strength in depth at the mid-upper market range. The fees at Kildangan for 2016 are almost unchanged from 2015 with only two changes. The weakness of the Euro should enhance the attractiveness of the stallions to UK breeders. Cape Cross appears to me as the best value proposition standing there.

Kildangan Stud 2016 fee (2015 fee)

Shamardal Private (€70,000) (2002 Giant’s Causeway ex Helsinki by Machiavellian).

The star of the Kildangan operation. A seriously good racehorse who won all of his 6 starts on turf including a Dewhurst, a French Guineas, a French Derby (over 10 furlongs) and a St James Palace Stakes. He is a consistent stallion who gets classy types across a range of distances and is currently showing a very creditable 8% stakes winners to foals of racing age . Had another good year in 2015 with 28 stakes winners in total . His older horses were best represented by two stars in Hong Kong in Able Friend and Dan Excel aka Dunboyne Express. His three year olds were headed by classic placed Lucida, Group 2 winners Balios and Dariyan.  Best of all he sired two impressive two year olds in Cheveley Park winner Iluminate and the Champagne Stakes winner Emotionless who had looked awesome prior to his listless run in the Dewhurst. His strength in depth, the potential of his two year olds and his claim to be a sire of sires since the emergence of Lope de Vega are all justifications for a fee increase. The question however is how much of an increase and we are obviously entering the realms of speculation given the ‘private’ nature of his 2016 fee. So let’s speculate..:)

Looking around Darley are probably comparing Shamardal with Sea the Stars (2016 fee €125,000) and Invincible Spirit (2016 fee €120,000). However I think they should resist the temptation to match those fees. At first glance his yearling sales returns look impressive with an average of 215000 guineas in 2015 but surprisingly this is a reduction on his 2014 average of 237,000 guineas and his medians are a more modest 115000 guineas in 2015 and 140000 guineas in 2014. To me this restricts the scope for dramatic increases in his fee. In my view €85,000 would be a justifiable price, €100,000 would be steep and above that walk away. He is a fine stallion but not at any price.

Note that since I posted this piece I’ve been informed that Darley is operating a restricted book for Shamardal due to an injury he received  last year so he is unlikely to be open to any outside mares (thanks to Donal McKenna for that update).

Teofilo €50,000 (€50,000) (2004 Galileo ex Speirbhean by Danehill)

An unbeaten champion two year old who was being talked about by Jim Bolger as a potential triple crown winner. In fact he never made the track at three. He has compiled a solid stud record with 6% stakes winners. Many of his best runners have been handled by Jim Bolger who still has a significant stake in the stallion. Teofilo had a good year in 2015 headlined by Irish 1000 Guineas and Yorkshire Oaks winner Pleascach and Group 2 winner and Sussex Stakes runner-up Arod. Had some nice  two year olds as well with Group winner First Victory and a Dewhurst second and third in Massatt and Sanus Per Aquam. I thought he was pricey last year but I think his results this year justify his fee although commercially his yearling median of 66000 guineas doesn’t allow much of a margin of error for commercial breeders.

Exceed And Excel €40,000 (€40,000) (2000 Danehill ex Patrona by Lomond)

A successful stallion in two hemispheres a real two year old sire and commercially popular with a median of over 80,000 guineas in 2015. His best runners in 2015 were Coventry winner Buratino supported by other group winners Aboulie and Rouleau. However his total of European Group 1 winners is still a very modest three (Excelebration, Margot Did and Asi Siempre). His European fee started out at a modest €10,000 and I blame his success for all of the other reverse shuttlers that we don’t need 🙂  The market isn’t going to lose its preference for two year old sires any time soon, so commercially his fee is probably justifiable but at that price there are better sires of racehorses out there.

Dawn Approach €35,000 (€35,000) (2010 New Approach ex Hymn of Dawn by Phone Trick)

A champion two year old, a Guineas winner who won 8 of his twelve starts including four group 1’s. He was unbeaten in his first 7 runs until the sequence ended when failing completely to stay the Derby trip. His reputation was sky high entering the Derby, he rebounded to win the St James Palace Stakes only 17 days after the Derby, but his reputation dimmed with defeats on his final three runs. He was part of the superb first crop of New Approach and his dam is from a reasonable but not remarkable US family.  New Approach has gone a little quiet after his first crop and I would have thought that Dawn Approach’s fee would have dipped because of this and as newer sires came to the market.

Night Of Thunder €30,000 (NEW) (2011 Dubawi ex Forest Storm by Galileo)

Somehow defeated Kingman in a quality renewal of the 2000 Guineas and among his other vanquished that day were Australia, Charm Spirit, Toormore, Kingston Hill and War Command. Ran well but unsuccessfully in a number of mile races in 2014 but returned to winning ways in the 2015 Lockinge Stakes. He failed to build on that success in two more moderate runs behind Solow before retirement. He cost only 32000 guineas as a yearling which was well below the average for Dubawi that year and surprising as his dam was stakes placed and from the family of Forest Flower. He is the first big winner to emerge from the combination of Dubawi and Galileo and this combination of the two best sires in Europe is likely to be replicated many more times. Night of Thunder is the best son of Dubawi to stand in Ireland which should help his popularity but overall I think he is fully priced.

Cape Cross €20,000 (€20,000) (1994 Cape Cross ex Park Appeal by Ahonoora)

The best value sire on the Darley roster. In 2015 he had another superstar in Golden Horn to rank alongside Sea the Stars and Ouija Board and yet his fee is unchanged. He had a total of 12 stakes winners this year and his overall stats now show 102 stakes winners from 1954 foals of racing age which is a credible 5%. In 2015 he also sired Karpino who was an unbeaten and impressive winner of the German guineas but unfortunately was not seen out again after May. Better still he has a live prospect of siring a third Derby winner in the Jim Bolger trained Moonlight Magic (Cape Cross ex Melikah by Lammtarra). Moonlight Magic was unbeaten in his two races including a listed race and is certainly bred for the job as Melikah (who was placed in the Oaks) is a daughter of Urban Sea so Moonlight Magic is a three parts brother to Sea the Stars.  Age is no barrier to a stallion siring successful offspring and breeders should take advantage of Cape Cross at his bargain fee before he is retired.

Slade Power €20,000 (€20,000) (2009 Dutch Art ex Girl Power by Key of Luck)

Won 10 of his 20 races and his career peaked as a five year old when he notched a group 1 double in the July Cup and the Diamond Jubilee. He was a Group 2 winner as four year old in the British Champions Sprint a race in which he had broken his pelvis as a three year old. He was rated 130 by Timeform but his pedigree is very ordinary as evidenced by his price of 5,000 guineas as a yearling. Admittedly at the time his sire Dutch Art was available for only 6000 guineas but after a good start to his career he is now standing at a hefty 40000 guineas. I wouldn’t be rushing to spend 20k on an unproven sire from a modest female line, who cost 5k as yearling and who was at his best as a five year old over 6 furlongs.

Raven’s Pass €15,000 (€20,000) (2005 Elusive Quality ex Ascutney by Lord at War)

A good two year old who looked special in the Solario Stakes before coming back to earth with a third place in the Dewhurst behind New Approach. He took a while to get things together at three being beaten in his first four starts including in the Guineas, St James Palace and Sussex Stakes behind Henrythenavigator. However he finished his season with a trio of victories including defeats of Henrythenavigator in the QEII and in the Breeders Cup Classic run on a pro-ride surface at Santa Anita. He retired at a fee of €40000 and the fall to €15000 tells its own story. On the face of it his percentages aren’t bad with 5% stakes winners (13 from 244 foals of racing age) but there has been a real lack of high quality performers. His highest rated performer by the Racing Post is the very forgettable Steeler who won a Royal Lodge. Incidentally his sales averages were distorted by the insane 2 million euros that Moyglare paid for a filly (ex Spirit of Tara) from a quality Kilcarn Stud family  at Goffs in September. Moyglare were clearly attracted to the dam of the filly and obviously weren’t bothered by her age (21 years old). Returning to Raven’s Pass, it’s difficult to see him resurrecting his reputation and getting improved results from cheaper books of mares so a definite avoid recommendation.

Epaulette €7,000 (£7,000) (2009 Commands ex Accessories by Singspiel)

A dual group 1 winner at 5 furlongs and 7 furlongs and a three parts brother to another Darley sire in Helmet. A grandson of Danehill and from a European family his pedigree should seem familiar to European breeders . Not too expensive but I’d still be very reluctant to use these unproven Aussies- he might be the next Exceed and Excel but more likely he will be just another failed reverse shuttler.

Hallowed Crown €7,000 (NEW) (2011 Street Sense ex  Crowned Glory by Danehill)

Another dual group 1 winner who won 6 of his 9 starts. Its easy to see why Aussies would like this fellows pedigree- his dam was runner up in a Golden Slipper and his third dam Lady Giselle is the dam of Zabeel. The same comment that I made about Epaulette applies in this case i.e. he might be the next Exceed and Excel but more likely he will be just another failed reverse shuttler.

Shooting To Win €7,000 (NEW) (2011 Northern Meteor ex Listen Here by Elusive Quality)

Won a Caulfield Guineas. His sire Northern Meteor died as an 8 year old after a very promising start to his stud career. Northern Meteor is a son of Encasto de Lago so it is interesting that the Fairy King sire line might find a way to reestablish itself in Europe. Again the same comment about unproven shuttlers that I have previously made applies in this instance.

French Navy €4,000 (NEW – Darley Club) (2008 Shamardal ex First Fleet by Woodman)

Managed 22 runs and 11 wins in a career that saw him run every season between the ages of 2-7. Consistent at his own level but that level never went about that of a Group 3 winner. His pedigree is sprinkled with a few decent names and he is by a very good stallion in Shamardal who has already got a very good stallion son in Lope de Vega. Having him in the ‘Darley Club’ allows breeders a free return in years two and three and a lifetime breeding right thereafter which make him seem much more attractive for breeders on a tight budget. However before breeders get swayed by this marketing offer they have to ask themselves why, if they were unwilling to use a stallion for one year they would instead commit to using him repeatedly because he is part of a special offer?!  Its a bit like saying you wouldn’t consider going someplace on holidays for a weekend but if the price is right you will commit to going there on holidays every year for the next decade!

Fulbright €4,000 (NEW – Darley Club) (2009 Exceed and Excel ex Lindfield Belle by Fairy King)

Won the Listed Woodcote Stakes and 2 and the Challenge Stakes at 3 for Mark Johnston before being transferred to Godolphin. He raced primarily in Meydan at 4 and 5 but without notable success. He is a half brother to two group winners in Baltic King and Domingues (both by Danetime) and Baltic King has compiled an undistinguished record at stud. Another very difficult sell to breeders and hence the use of the carrot of the Darley Club.