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Tag: sires

  • Seven Value Sires for 2024

    For any breeders who have yet to decide on their 2024 stallions, I have compiled a shortlist of seven budget-friendly sires offering a good risk/reward ratio. In trying to identify value sires, I ignore sires who haven’t had runners, as most new sires will fail. Value sires will typically fall into one of three categories

    1. Older proven stallions who are getting fee reductions to compete with the more fashionable younger sires. Oasis Dream falls into this category.
    2. Sires with limited track representation who have shown promise but could be on the cusp of breakthrough success. Frontiersman, Coulsty, Phoenix of Spain and Study of Man are in this category.
    3. Sires with good reputations with trainers/agents who will deliver in the sales ring regardless of short term results in the track- Awtaad and Holy Roman Emperor are in this category.

    1. Frontiersman (2013 Dubawi ex Ouija Board by Cape Cross)
    Fee £2000- Standing at Overbury Stud

    I wouldn’t normally recommend a horse with a Timeform squiggle who never won above Listed level as a value sire but this guy offers great value for a £2000 fee.
    Firstly, the pedigree is exceptional. Dubawi has solidified his standing as a sire of sires, and Ouija Board adds further luster as both a champion on the track and the dam of a good sire in Australia. Frontiersman had a Timeform rating of 121 (albeit with a squiggle) and was runner up in a Coronation Cup so he was higher rated than many sires. His first runners on the flat (Asian Daze and Missy Dolly Rocker) were both winners. He had been marketed as a dual purpose/NH sire by Overbury but I think he is worthy of serious consideration by flat breeders at a peanuts fee.

    2. Awtaad 2013 Cape Cross ex Asheerah by Shamardal
    Fee €5000- Standing at Derrinstown Stud

    Everybody now loves Awtaad as a value sire and for that reason it makes sense to use him. Agents and trainers will feel reassured purchasing his progeny because they have heard enough people repeating the mantra that he is great value. This year will see his fifth crop on the track and after a quiet start, 2 Group/Grade 1 winners (Anisette and Anmaat) in 2023 made everyone sit up and take notice. That said, his stats aren’t that exciting with 11 stakes winners (4%) and he has only 8 two years this year and 27 yearlings next year so I wouldn’t expect any great fireworks on the track in the near future. However at €5k, following the bandwagon should now work for commercial breeders on a budget.

    3. Coulsty 2011 Kodiac ex Hazium by In The Wings
    Fee €5500- Standing at Rathasker Stud

    Despite his lack of representation he has a Grade 1 winner to his name in Shantisara, a Group 3 winner, three Listed winners and two stakes placed runners. This is an impressive record from only 48 cheaply bred runners. He has 75 two year olds this year and 119 yearlings on the horizon. This compares with 68 foals in all his previous crops so his track profile should soar. Kodiac has gained a decent reputation as a sire of sires and Coulsty could be on an upward trajectory.

    4. Holy Roman Emperor 2004 Holy Roman Emperor ex L’on Vite by Secretariat
    Fee €8000- Standing at Coolmore Stud

    A reliable sire who might be a good option for a younger mare trying to get winners on her page. He didn’t have his best year in 2023 but so far he has sired 14 Group 1 winner (9 in the Northern hemisphere) and is operating at 5% stakes winners to foals. He had a healthy yearling median of €31k last year so he is a decent commercial proposition.

    5. Phoenix of Spain 2016 Lope De Vega ex Lucky Clio by Key of Luck
    Fee €10,000- Standing at Irish National Stud

    I thought his first runners exceeded expectations with 20 two year old winners from 51 runners in a crop of 97. With his progeny expected to improve with time, those are more than respectable numbers. Amongst his winners was Haatem, who won the Grp 2 Vintage Stakes so it was mildly surprising that his fee was shaved from €12k to €10k. He had a yearling median of c. €25k last year but if his progeny progress as expected then I think there could be upside in using him.

    6. Study of Man 2015 Deep Impact ex Second Happiness by Storm Cat
    Fee £12,500- Standing at Lanwades

    I’m keen on this beautifully bred, French Derby winner with Miesque as his grandam. His first crop was promising with 11 winners from a total crop of 55, headlined by the Beresford Stakes winner Deepone and Grp 3 placed Ghorgan. The expectation is that as a son of Deep Impact, his progeny will improve with age. I could see him as a classic sire and there aren’t many sires in this price bracket about whom that could be said.

    7. Oasis Dream 2000 Green Desert ex Hope by Dancing Brave
    Fee £15,000- Standing at Banstead Manor

    Oasis Dream has sired 134 stakes winners (7%) and 20 Group 1 winners so his ability as a sire is not in doubt. His fee reflects his age. Older stallions generally have lower fertility and there is a belief that progeny results also show decline in later crops. This is the lowest fee of his career ( he stood a number of seasons at £85k) and I think it is adequately discounted to account for any age related concerns.

  • 2013 stud fees- some overpriced examples

    Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and defining value is a very subjective measure. Looking at the published fees for 2013 there were a few fees that took my eye as representing particularly poor value.  I wouldn’t have time to list all the overpriced first season sires, so I’m restricting myself to those sires with runners……

    Poor Value Sires

    1. High Chaparral (1999 Sadler’s Wells ex Kasora by Darshaan) 2013 fee €25,000

    I could just cut and paste my comments from last year regarding High Chaparral- yes he was a great racehorse, yes he has done very well in Australia/New Zealand but there is no way his European results merit a €25000 fee.  It is extraordinary to think that he has yet to sire a European Group 1 winner from his huge number of European conceived progeny. His sales returns have been good for the past two years but  sooner rather than later European breeders will wake up to the fact that he is only managing 3% stakes winners and is due a significant cut in fee. By way of comparison for the same fee you could access Dalakhani who has 5% stakes winners and has sired 5 individual European Group 1 winners.

    2. Footstepsinthesand (2002 Giant’s Causeway ex Glatisant by Rainbow Quest) 2013 fee €10000

    Not as egregiously bad value as his stud mate but nonetheless I think Footsteps has been a disappointment and is now overpriced.  He has managed only 2% stakes winners and if you take into account that his stud fee was over 20k for his first three years at stud, his record is not going to improve in the coming years. His median for the past two years has hovered around his stud fee so the commercial market is hardly in love with him. Interestingly he is the last and only Storm Cat line horse now in Coolmore Ireland but I’m sure if a suitable offer came from overseas, Coolmore would be happy to offload him and that particular experiment would come to an end without too many tears being shed by Ireland’s breeders. By way of comparison you could use Azamour for the same fee and he has 4% stakes winners.

    3. Elusive City (2000 Elusive Quality ex Star of Paris by Dayjur) 2013 fee €12,500

    I wrote about Elusive City last year when he was France’s most expensive stallion at €15000. He no longer holds this particular title but he still remains a sire who manages only 2% stakes winners and he remains considerably overpriced. You could pick 20 stallions who represent better value but two similarly priced Mr Prospector line stallions that are far better sires (albeit standing in the UK) are Medicean and Zamindar.

    4. Teofilo (2004 Galileo ex Speirbhean by Danehill ) 2013 fee €35,000

    I might be eating my words on this one, given that he produced three very nice two year old colts last year in Loch Garman, Havana Gold and Trading Leather. However I’m not arguing that Teofilo isn’t capable of producing high class horses but to me he didn’t do enough last year to justify a hike from €25000 to €35000. This is particularly the case when I felt that his three year olds were somewhat disappointing although admittedly the absence of his first crop star Parish Hall had a big impact on this.  His stud fee owes a lot to the growing belief in Galileo as a sire of sires and the fact that he shares the Galileo/Danehill cross with Frankel probably helps along with some strong Autumn sales results. People are taking a punt of fashion and on potential and  although he is an interesting sire his fee should have stayed at its 2012 level until he truly delivered on that potential.  By way of comparison at the exact same fee, his stud mate Cape Cross has demonstrated his ability to produce the goods and I would rather the proven over the possible any day.

  • Live fast,die young, leave a good looking crop?

    In this months international thoroughbred magazine I examined the impact of death on the values of his final crops. The full text is shown below:

    Art collectors have been known to pop open the champagne on hearing of the death of an artist. The reason is not extreme misanthropy, but rather the likely increase in the value of their collections. Values for art, bloodstock or any other commodity are supposedly set at the interface of supply and demand. Death sees an end to supply, so economic theory would predict an increase in values. With this in mind I thought it would be interesting to see whether stallion mortality offers opportunity for profit within the bloodstock world. Do buyers pay a premium for stock of the recently deceased and is there a “death effect” that could be exploited by pinhookers or agents?

    Methodology:

    In attempting to quantify if there is an upsurge in prices, I needed to compare the prices in the years after death with the prices just prior to death. To do this I looked at their final five year’s yearling prices and expressed each year’s sales average as a percentage of that five year average. For example if a stallions sales average was €10,000 in 2011, €15,000 in 2010, €8,000 in 2009, 15,000 in 2008 and €12,000 in 2007, then the average for the five year period is €12,000 and the 2011 result is 83% of the five year average (€10,000/€12,000) with the 2010 result being 125% of the five year average (€15,000/€12,000). By expressing the results in this way we are able to compare the effect for stallions who stood at very different stud fees.

    In selecting the stallions I looked at the list of leading sires from 2002 and selected those stallions who are now deceased and with no more yearlings to sell. Stallions with very small sales numbers were excluded as were stallions that were exported or standing outside of the UK and Ireland
    The stallions died at various years from the late nineties up to the beginning of this decade and varied in age and stud fee when they died.

    I also noted the year of birth of the stallion and the year in which his last crop were sold. This allowed for an assessment of whether the age of the stallion at the time of death had an impact on the result. Some caveats in relation to my findings include the fact that working from the leading sires list excluded less established or sires who had died very young and also my five year average figure was not a weighted average figure. The data-set generated is contained below

    Summary of Findings

    At first sight, the results do not support the hypothesis that there is a “death effect”. The final years sales results are only 95% of the five year average, the same figure as the penultimate year’s results. However this is an increase on the 87% figure for the third last crop sold, so you could argue that a slight bounce is evident.
    The average age of the sires when the last crop was conceived was 17.8 years. To check if this was significant I went and compared the results for those sires who were aged under or over 18 at the time their last crop was conceived against the overall averages. Although there were variations they were not particularly significant, so the age at death does not seem material to the findings. I found this to be surprising as it is well known that the quality of a stallions book declines with age (even though a stallions ability to pass on his ability is not diminished with age). However lesser mares will mean lesser offspring and accordingly lesser prices and I would have expected this age related effect to be more noticeable in the statistics.

    Conclusions

    I could discern no obvious grim reaper premium but given that there was a slight bounce in the final two years figures, it is possible that there was a marginal effect. Against that one could speculate that once a stallion dies, he is less likely to receive support from his owners who may have purchased stock in the past to boost sales figures. Similarly stud owners are less likely to spend money advertising the successes of the deceased than the living, so this again may have a slight negative impact on sales prices.
    It is not speculation to state that bloodstock is not art and horses don’t appreciate in value with age. However, bloodstock values are a matter of fashion and the last offspring of an old master have to compete with trendy first season sires for marketplace attention. I had expected an obituary notice to help in that regard but it seems that death cannot be described as a good career move for a stallion.

  • Montjeu jumps to the fore

    Sadler’s Wells has had a profound effect on the jump racing scene, even more so than his impact on the flat. A look at the current jump stallions standings shows Sadler’s Wells himself in 15th position by prize money and an astonishing 7 of his sons are ahead of him in the stallion rankings. These are Old Vic, Oscar, Accordion, Saddlers’ Hall, Kayf Tara, King’s Theatre and the new kid on the block Montjeu who sits one place ahead of his sire in the table. To date in the 2008/09 season Montjeu has been represented by 60 runners and 11 winners and considering that his oldest progeny have just turned seven he is likely to move nearer the top of the table over the coming years.  Montjeu’s merits as a jumps sire were highlighted over the Christmas period when he sired a grade 1 hurdles winner, and two placed grade 1 runners. The placed runners were Blue Bajan (2002 Montjeu-Gentle Thoughts by Darshaan) who finished a close up third to Harchibald in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and Won in the Dark (2004 Montjeu-Mesata by Lion Cavern) who ran Sublimity to half a length in the Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown. Won in the Dark had previously scored in Grade 1 company when running away with the champion 4 year old hurdle at Punchestown and he is currently quoted at 25-1 for the Champion Hurdle. However Montjeu’s Christmas cracker was Hurricane Fly (2004 Montjeu-Scandisk by Kenmare) who won his second Grade 1 in spectacular fashion when quickening right away from the field in the champion novice hurdle at Leopardstown. Hurricane Fly showed real acceleration after the last and it was no surprise that he had been more than useful on the flat where he once won a listed race defeating no less than Literato and Spirit One in  France.  He is now clear favourite for the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham and he is even quoted in the Champion Hurdle betting by some firms. The dam of Hurricane Fly produced another stakes horse in Hunzy (by Desert King) who picked up some cheap Italian black type. Hurricane Fly’s second dam Yankee Lady was a sister to Yankee Gold who won a Royal Whip and Ballymoss Stakes. She was by Lord Gayle who is now in so many National Hunt pedigrees because of the impact of his son the champion sire Strong Gale. Hurricane Fly was not bred for the National Hunt game but it is no surprise that he has shown such talent in the field. As for Montjeu’s credentials as a jumps sire, they could hardly have been better. Sadlers Wells was an outstanding sire of hurdlers siring Istabraq, Theatreworld, Pridwell and French Ballerina amongst others. Montjeu’s broodmare sire Top Ville sired a number of top jumps sires and promising younger sires including the tragically short lived Toulon, Beneficial, Un Desperado, Pistolet Bleu and Norwich. Had Montjeu not been such a success on the flat no doubt he would now be a very stallion at Coolmores National Hunt division. As it is he seems set to follow in his fathers footsteps as a top class stallion in both realms.

    HURRICANE FLY (IRE) 2004 c b
    Montjeu
    (IRE) 1996    		 Sadler’s
    Wells (USA) 1981    		 Northern
    Dancer (CAN) 1961    		 Nearctic
    (USA) 1954
    Natalma
    (USA) 1957
    Fairy
    Bridge (USA) 1975    		 Bold
    Reason (USA) 1968
    Special
    (USA) 1969
    Floripedes
    (FR) 1985    		 Top
    Ville (IRE) 1976    		 High
    Top (IRE) 1969
    Sega
    Ville (USA) 1968
    Toute
    Cy (FR) 1979    		 Tennyson
    (FR) 1955
    Adele
    Toumignon (IRE) 1971
    Scandisk
    (IRE) 1995    		 Kenmare
    (FR) 1975    		 Kalamoun
    (GB) 1970    		 Zeddaan
    (GB) 1965
    Khairunissa
    (GB) 1960
    Belle
    Of Ireland (GB) 1964    		 Milesian
    (GB) 1953
    Belle
    Of The Ball (GB) 1958
    Yankee
    Lady (IRE) 1977    		 Lord
    Gayle (USA) 1965    		 Sir
    Gaylord (USA) 1959
    Sticky
    Case (USA) 1958
    Ceol
    An Oir (GB) 1961    		 Vimy
    (FR) 1952
    Pal
    An Oir (IRE) 1956