Ballylinch Stud’s 2020 fees reviewed

Image result for ballylinch stud kilkenny
An impartial review of their 2020 Stud Fees

These are good times for Ballylinch Stud. Owned by American billionaire John Malone, the stud has assembled a small but select stallion roster. Lope de Vega’s reputation continues to climb and he is joined by some interesting younger prospects. They have secured a top class Arc winner in Waldgeist and they provide two nice Dubawi line stallions in Make Believe and New Bay. They provide some welcome competition in Ireland to the Coolmore and Darley mega-rosters.

Fascinating Rock €7,000 (7,500) (2011 Fastnet Rock ex Miss Polaris by Polar Falcon

Verdict (overpriced)

Fascinating Rock has his first runners in 2020, so anyone using him this season is taking a gamble. There is no arguing with his ability as a racehorse, as he was high class at four and five winning a Champion Stakes and Tattersalls Gold Cup. Although not precocious, he won a couple of early season Derby trials at three. He was the first son of Fastnet Rock at stud in Europe. He has since been joined at stud by Merchant Navy at Coolmore and Fas in France. Both of these were sprinters but there are some stamina influences in Fascinating Rock including his grandam being by Ela Mana Mou. This might explain how his half brother Quick Jack (by Footstepsinthesand) won a Galway Hurdle. Overall, Fascinating Rock comes from an ordinary female line. He had a yearling median of 12,000 guineas in 2019 so the market is already circumspect about his prospects. I would have expected more of a fee reduction to entice breeders. He was well supported by his breeder Newtown Anner Stud but still ‘only’ had books of 62 and 64 mares in the past two years. I don’t see that number increasing in 2020.

Lope de Vega €100,000 (80,000) (2007 Shamardal ex Lady Vettori by Vettori

Verdict Good Value

Lope de Vega has risen rapidly through the ranks. He stood for €15,000 in his first two seasons before dropping to €12,500 in 2013 and 2014 . He then went to €40,000 in 2015 and his fee has risen every subsequent season. 2019 saw him sire a major classic winner in Phoenix of Spain and there were Group 1’s for Zabeel Prince in France and Santa Ana Lane in Australia. Four stakes winning two year olds also contributed to a good season. The only real disappointment was the failure of juvenile superstar Newspaperofrecord to train on. Lope De Vega has credible percentages with 50 Black Type Winners from 645 foals of racing age in the Northern Hemisphere (8%) and this should improve, as more of his 2016 and 2017 crop win Stakes races. His sales record showed a median of 120,000 guineas for his yearlings last year (they were conceived off a €50,000 cover) and I expect his averages to continue to rise. He may not get the prettiest sales horses but purchasers now presumably realise that handsome is as handsome does. He is a versatile sire who gets two year olds , sprinters, milers and middle distance horses and to me his fee has a bit more to go before he is fully priced.

Make Believe €12,000 (12,000) (2012 Makfi ex Rosie’s Posy by Suave Dancer

Verdict Fairly Priced

Make Believe won both his races at two before annexing the French Guineas and Prix de la Foret at three. He was a son of Guineas winner Makfi, who enjoyed only modest success in Europe. Make Believe comes from a good female line featuring names like Irish Guineas third My Branch and Tante Rose. Make Believe’s had 16, two year old winners from 51 runners out of a total crop size of 89 (a very high percentage of runners to foals). Encouragingly, those winners included Group 3 winners, Rose of Kildare and Ocean Fantasy and Listed winner Tammani. With so many two year old runners, trainers obviously viewed them as early types but I would expect them to improve with age.

Despite the three stakes winners, he didn’t however prove popular at the yearling sales with a 2019 median of 19,500 Guineas (only 10,000 guineas for fillies). There is a great line in Blackadder where mad Captain Rum says ‘opinion is divided on the subject…. all the other captains say it is, I say it isn’t’ 🙂 In the case of Make Believe, I may be in a minority (and hopefully not mad), but I think the market has underestimated him and he is due a reassessment. If you are buying his offspring, there is value to be had…

New Bay €15,000 (15,000) (2012 Dubawi ex Cinnamon Bay by Zamindar

Verdict Overpriced (slightly)

New Bay was high class from 8-12 furlongs. He won the Prix de Jockey Club, was runner up to Make Believe in the French Guineas and was a close third in the Arc to Golden Horn. As a son of Dubawi, improvement would have been expected in his four year old season, but instead he only added a weak Group 3 to his record. We were starting to wonder about stallion sons of Dubawi after relative disappointments such as Makfi, Poets Voice and Worthadd but now Night of Thunder looks like he could be the real deal. New Bay’s dam was a stakes winner and she is from one of the top Juddmonte family’s descending from Bahamian. This brings in names such as Oasis Dream, Zenda (who won the French 1000 Guineas and is the dam of Kingman) and Beat Hollow. New Bay’s yearlings had a median of 28,000 guineas last year but they were conceived off a €20,000 initial fee. He has 72 two year olds running for him this season but although he doesn’t appeal as a two year old sire, he is a very interesting prospect.

In defence of his 2020 fee, New Bay is by a top sire, he is from a high class female line and he demonstrated top class form from a mile to a mile and half. He should suit most of the mares in the Irish population with no Danzig in his pedigree and Sadler’s Wells in the third generation. He may well prove to be a great bargain like Night of Thunder but I thought they might have dropped him to €12,500 in this risky season for breeders.

Waldgeist €17,500 (n/a) (2014 Galileo ex Waldlerche by Monsun

Verdict Overpriced (but only because the market is irrational)

It’s a strange world, when a well bred Arc winner, by the dominant sire of our era, retires at a stud fee less than that of Calyx- a horse who never won a Group 1 and only ran four times. Waldgeist showed top class form over four seasons. He was a Group 1 winner at two, he was just touched off in the Prix de Jockey Club at three, he won a Grand Prix de Saint Cloud at four and a Prix Ganay and Arc at five. He comes from a high class German ‘W’ family. His dam won the Prix Penelope, his grand dam produced St Leger winner Masked Marvel and his third dam produced German Derby winner Waldpark. It’s not Waldgeist’s fault that stamina influences such as Monsun are deemed undesirable, nor that there is suspicion about horses who seemingly improved with age (even if he was a Group 1 winner at two and all horses physically peak at four or five). I think Waldgeist is an attractive package, but I don’t think he will find favour in our speed and precocity obsessed markets. He might be an interesting option for those breeding to race but commercial breeders might need a little convincing at that fee. An interesting comparison might be with Decorated Knight, who also won two Group 1’s at five. Decorated Knight wasn’t quite as good a racehorse as Waldgeist but he comes from a superior female family and stands for just €9,000.

2014 End of Season Awards- ‘The Victors’

Now that the European season is almost over, it’s time to hand out my end of year awards (The Victors)

1. Stallion of the year: Galileo who else? It’s easy to take for granted his year on year domination, but it really is extraordinary. This year so far he has sired another Derby winner in Australia, classic winner Marvellous, Group 1 winners Tapestry and Adelaide. Amongst his older horses Noble Mission has earned the right to stop being referred to as simply Frankel’s brother. More significantly the pipeline looks incredibly strong with Group 1 winning two year olds in Gleaneagles, Together Forever and Found and an even more exciting prospect in John F Kennedy. He does have all the advantages of the best mares and large books but he keeps producing the goods in a way few stallions in history could match.

2. Flop of the Year: Fastnet Rock. Just to show that Coolmore don’t always get it right. Sensational in Australia, Coolmore reverse shuttled him and patronised him with some of their elite mares. He had a slow start with his European two year olds in 2013 but we waited and waited for them to burst onto the scene in 2014 but it never really happened. The Coolmore boys recognised the game was up and sold a job lot of 9 of his yearlings to the Australian OTI syndicate. He has fallen far short of expectations (I would have expected at least 2 Gr 1 winners from that book of mares) and no tears will be shed if he doesn’t return to Ireland.

3. Breakthrough sire of the year: Kodiac. When he retired to stud in 2007 Kodiac had a modest race record with no Stakes wins to his name and his best run being a fourth in the Prix Maurice de Gheest. However he had plenty to recommend him on pedigree being a son of Danehill out of a classic winner in Rafha who was the dam of rising stallion Invincible Spirit. His initial fee was €5000 and that dropped in year 3 and year 4 to €4000. Plenty of winners started to follow and after a proliferation of two year old winners in 2013 his fee reached €10000 in 2014. This year, since the beginning of the season he has been an unstoppable force with his two year olds and more importantly some have demonstrated considerable quality notably. The highlight for Kodiac was the speed machine that is Tiggy Wiggy and for good measure Kodi Bear stepped up on his previous runs to come second in the Dewhurst. In addition the 3 year old Coulsty won a group 3 as did the 6 year old Jamesie. His recent sales results include a large number of six figure sales and he is set for a very significant and justified fee hike in 2015.

4. Second Crop Sire of the Year: Le Havre. Hard to call this award as it could have gone to Sea the Stars, Mastercraftsman or Le Harve. Sea the Stars had a huge amount to live up to being one of the outstanding horses of the era, being a half brother to Galileo and having covered an outstanding book of mares. He has not disappointed having sired a superstar filly in Taghrooda, and a scintillating winner of the German derby in Sea the Moon as part of a very impressive haul of 10 stakes winners. Mastercraftsman had a lesser book of mares than Sea the Stars ((althought not a bad book of mares given his initial fee was €20000) but surpassed expectations by delivering two classic winners in Kingston Hill and the Grey Gatsby. However my selection is Le Havre who despite having won a Prix du Jockey Club was retired at a fee of just €5000. He has repaid his supporters in spades with a dual classic winner in Avenir Certain, a Group 2 winner in Auvray and the high class Le Hoguette amongst 6 stakes winners. He has earned the right to much bigger and better books in 2015.

5. First season sire of the year: Lope de Vega. For most of the season I had the name Starspangledbanner pencilled in for this award. He looked like he had the makings of a fine stallion getting a pair of impressive Royal Ascot winners in The Wow Signal and Alexander Anthem from a depleted first crop (due to fertility issues). However although The Wow Signal added a Group 1, the lustre has slightly faded from this pair and no other stakes winners have emerged. In contrast the offspring of Lope De Vega have really come good as the season progressed and he can already boast of four Group winners headed by recent Dewhurst winner Belardo, backed up by Italian Group 2 winner Here Look and a pair of Group 3 winners in Burnt Sugar and Royal Razalma. In addition Endless Drama put up a most impressive performance when winning today at Naas as he towered over his rivals in every sense. Given that Lope de Vega was better at three when he emulated his own sire Shamardal by winning the French Guineas and Derby Ballylinch Stud must be hopeful that his momentum will continue. Lope de Vega retired at a fee of €15000 and stood for €12500 for the past two years but a big hike is to be expected.

6. Performance of the Year: Sole Power in the Nunthorpe Stakes. Sole Power is a standing dish in the top sprints and won the Nunthorpe back in 2010 (at which time I wrote about his pedigree (http://www.montjeu.com/archives/295). His winning performance in this year’s edition really had to be seen to be believed as he showed remarkable acceleration against high class sprinters.  Enjoy it for yourself here

 

Lope de Vega- something to write about

Lope de Vega was a celebrated Spanish writer, ranked almost the equal of Cervantes and the author of an incredible 1800 plays (thanks Wikipedia). Last weekend’s French Guineas (Poule d’Essai des Poulains) saw another Lope de Vega defeat Dick Turpin by half a length.  The equine Lope is unlikely to achieve evarlasting fame but on a line through Dick Turpin there is currently little between him and Makfi at the top of the European rankings for milers.

Lope de Vega- performance to date

Lope de Vega was a very useful two year old winning his first two starts before winding up his season with a close fourth behind Siyouni in the Grand Criterium. He was third, beaten only half a length on his seasonal reappearance in the Prix de Fontainbleu before his half length success in the Poule D’Essai des Poulains.  In the aftermath of his victory it was stated that he would be aimed at the 10 furlongs of the French Derby. On pedigree, he should have a reasonable chance of getting the additional two furlongs.

Lope de Vega- bred for the French Guineas

In some respects Lope de Vega was bred for the French Guineas. His sire Shamardal won the race in 2005 and his broodmare sire Vettori won the 1995 edition of the race. In addition his grandam Lady Golconda is a daughter of Kendor who won the 1989 renewal.  Furthermore Rahy is the broodmare sire of Giants Causway and Rahy is a son of Blushing Groom the winner of the 1977 renewal.

Shamardal’s racing career

Shamardal was unbeaten on turf, winning the Dewhurst at two for Mark Johnston, before winning the French Guineas (from the luckless Indesatchel ridden by Jamie (Frank) Spencer) at three. He followed up in the first 10 furlong French Derby defeating the fast finishing Hurricane Run.  In the case of both French classics he benefitted from canny rides from Frankie Dettori.  Just 9 days after the French Derby he contested the St James Palace Stakes and he put up an extremely impressive performance that marked him out as an outstanding performer. Unfortunatley it proved to be his last race.

Shamardal’s life story was certainly interesting as he was diagnosed as a wobbler, his first owner Abdulla Buhaleeba sold him at the end of his two year old career after reputedly incurring significant casino losses. He was by Coolmores Giant’s Causeway out of a sister to Godolphins Street Cry, but Coolmore passed him over at the Houghton Sales after failing an endoscopic test. He was the star of Giant’s Causeway’s first crop that also featured Footstepsinthesand and Karen’s Caper.

Shamardal’s stud career

Shamardal’s first crop 143 was conceived off a fee of €40,000. From that crop Arctic was a group 3 winner in Ireland before disappointing somewhat in the Middle Park stakes. Shakespearean won the Solario Stakes and followed up in the Goffs million.  As three year olds Siyaadah won the UAE 1000 Guineas and Zazou won a German Group 3 before coming a close sixth behind Lope de Vega in the Franch Guineas.  From his time in Australia he is represented by Faint Perfume who is a dual Group 1 winner including the Crown Oaks over 12 and half furlongs. He is currently listed as €20000 and should be popular at that price as he is delivering plenty of stakes horses.

Lady Vettori

Lady Vettori, the dam of Lope de Vega won  her first five races as a two year old including the Group 3 Prix du Calvados. She finished her season with a highly creditable third in the Prix Marcel Boussac. She ran just once at three when just touched off in the Prix Imprudence. At stud she had four foals prior to Lope de Vega, the best of whom was Bal de la Rose (by Cadeuax Genereux) who was a 10 furlong Group 3 winner. Lady Vettori is herself a half sister to a stakes performer in Rosey de Megeve (by Efisio) and there are some decent connections further back in the pedigree. However, overall it is not a particularly high class family and it was her racing merit not her pedigree that saw Lady Vettori sold for €500,000 in December 2005.

Conclusion.

His run in the French Guineas represented a career best performance for Lope de Vega. His manner of victory was not overly impressive and he will probably need to show further improvement if he is to succeed in his stated target of the French Derby.  He is a nice advert for his sire Shamardal who is one of the leading lights of a bunch of highly promising new sires to burst on the scene. His dam Lady Vettori owned a modest enough pedigree but she was a superior racehorse and she can certainly take her share of the credit for her sons success.  Machiavellian appears 3*3 in the pedigree as broodmare sire of Shamardal and sire of Vettori but rather than reading too much into that I think we can just credit the combination of a much better than average sire and dam.

LOPE DE VEGA (IRE) 2007 c ch

Shamardal
(USA) 2002
Giant’s
Causeway (USA) 1997
Storm
Cat (USA) 1983
Storm
Bird (USA) 1978
Terlingua
(USA) 1976
Mariah’s
Storm (USA) 1991
Rahy
(USA) 1985
Immense
(USA) 1979
Helsinki
(GB) 1993
Machiavellian
(USA) 1987
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Coup
De Folie (USA) 1982
Helen
Street (GB) 1982
Troy
(GB) 1976
Waterway
(FR) 1976
Lady
Vettori (GB) 1997
Vettori
(IRE) 1992
Machiavellian
(USA) 1987
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Coup
De Folie (USA) 1982
Air
Distingue (USA) 1980
Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Euryanthe
(USA) 1975
Lady
Golconda (FR) 1992
Kendor(FR) 1986 Kenmare
(FR) 1975
Belle
Mecene (FR) 1982
Lady
Sharp (FR) 1981
Sharpman
(IRE) 1976
Golondrina
(FR) 1970