Category: Trainers

  • Concentration Problem


    Nobody should begrudge Aidan O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien or Donnacha O’Brien their success. They are outstanding trainers and owners are perfectly entitled to send their horses wherever they believe they will prosper.

    But on day two of the Irish Champions Festival at the Curragh, the O’Briens won six consecutive races between them. As a racing fan, I found that troubling.

    There comes a point where racing has to distinguish between celebrating excellence and protecting competition.

    Tony Keenan highlighted an extraordinary statistic in The Irish Field last week: Aidan, Joseph and Donnacha O’Brien had supplied 44.1% of all runners in Irish Group races in 2026 at the time of writing. In each of the previous six years their combined share had been between 34.4% and 37.4%.

    Almost half the runners at the highest level of Irish Flat racing coming from one family should at least provoke a discussion.

    Joseph O’Brien’s operation illustrates the scale now possible. O’Brien himself said in December 2025 that there were “over 200 horses on site, training all the time.” Rumours within racing mention considerably greater numbers when horses in pre-training, recovery and associated operations are included.

    That is an extraordinary business achievement. But should Irish racing ask whether there should ultimately be a limit on how many horses can be returned in training under a single trainer’s licence?

    We already accept that principle at the other end of the scale. An IHRB restricted trainer is limited to four horses per code. There is therefore nothing unprecedented about linking a trainer’s licence to the number of horses he or she may train.

    Fewer trainers, bigger yards

    An economic report using HRI figures recorded 784 licensed trainers in Ireland in 2008. At the end of 2025, the IHRB recorded 392 full trainers, 208 restricted trainers and 17 hunter-chase licence holders. The categories are not directly comparable, but the long-term movement towards fewer, larger professional operations deserves attention.

    The economics are self-reinforcing. Bigger yards attract more good horses. More good horses produce more winners and prize money. That attracts more owners and allows greater investment in staff, facilities, veterinary expertise and technology — which attracts still more good horses.

    There is nothing improper about that. It is simply what concentration looks like.

    But which is healthier for Irish racing: one yard with 400 horses, or eight yards with 50?

    When smaller trainers disappear, racing loses more than businesses. It loses characters, local rivalries and local access to the sport for aspiring jockeys and others. It becomes harder for an ordinary owner to have a meaningful involvement with a local trainer.

    It is the racing equivalent of replacing the local corner shops with a few super-sized Tescos. The operation may be extremely efficient, but something important disappears with the competition.

    We have been here before

    HRI recognised the problem.

    And then it chickened out.

    In 2024 it proposed 60 National Hunt races restricted to trainers who had trained fewer than 50 Irish jumps winners in either of the previous two seasons. Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Henry de Bromhead and Gavin Cromwell would have been excluded.

    The reaction was revealing. Noel Meade and Ted Walsh publicly opposed the proposal and the four affected trainers were reported to be considering legal action against HRI.

    The proposal was eventually shelved.

    An alternative subsequently emerged through the IRTA and the William Hill Challenge Series. Everyone could compete for the normal prize money, but the biggest trainers could not qualify for the bonus element. The series ultimately distributed €135,000 in bonuses and delivered significant payments to smaller trainers.

    That tells us three things: racing recognises concentration is a problem; measures to address it can work; and HRI appears reluctant to pursue measures once serious resistance comes from the major yards.

    Who should act?


    Responsibility rests principally with HRI and the IHRB, although their roles are different.

    HRI controls much of the architecture of racing: fixtures, race programmes and prize money. It also receives very substantial State support. Of the €99.1 million allocated to the Horse and Greyhound Racing Fund for 2026, €79.3 million goes to HRI.

    That matters.

    One of the traditional political arguments for supporting Irish racing is its contribution to employment and economic activity throughout rural Ireland. If racing becomes progressively concentrated in a handful of enormous operations, that argument becomes less convincing.

    The IHRB, meanwhile, licenses trainers and makes and enforces the Rules of Racing. Any proposal to put an upper limit on the number of horses permitted under one licence would therefore inevitably involve the regulator.

    The Irish Racehorse Trainers Association (IRTA) also needs to be part of the debate, but representation matters. Its committee includes trainers operating at very different levels, including some of the country’s largest operations (you can view the committee here https://irta.ie/irta-today-2/ ). Where policies concerning concentration are being considered, smaller and middle-ranking trainers must have a strong and independent voice.

    What could actually be done?

    1. Introduce a cap on horses in training. HRI and the IHRB should examine a maximum number of active horses permitted under one trainer’s licence. Any limit would need a sensible transition period and anti-avoidance rules.
    2. Expand races for smaller trainers. The failure of the 50-winner proposal should not mean abandoning the idea. More races could include eligibility criteria designed to create opportunities for small and middle-ranking yards.
    3. Use bonus schemes. Where excluding major trainers creates legal difficulties, allow everyone to run but reserve substantial additional bonuses for qualifying yards.
    4. Limit multiple runners in selected races. Particularly where races are oversubscribed, should one trainer be allowed four or five runners while horses from other yards are eliminated?
    5. Publish a concentration index. HRI should report annually the percentage of horses in training, runners, winners and prize money accounted for by the largest five, ten and twenty trainers.
    6. Protect the middle tier. Racing needs more than a collection of tiny trainers and a handful of super-yards. It needs trainers capable of progressing from 20 horses to 40, from 40 to 80 and eventually becoming genuine competitors to the established giants.

    None of this means punishing success.

    America is regarded as the home of the free market, yet it has a long history of intervening when economic power became excessively concentrated. Standard Oil was broken up and, decades later, the Bell telephone system was divided.

    The principle is simple: sometimes competition has to be actively protected rather than hoping the free market will deliver an optimum outcome.

    And Irish racing is not a completely free market. It is a publicly supported and heavily regulated industry. Its authorities determine fixtures, race conditions, prize money, eligibility and who is entitled to hold a trainer’s licence.

    If racing is prepared to tell one trainer that he may train no more than four horses, it is hardly unreasonable to ask whether there should also be an upper limit when individual operations run into the hundreds.

    The objective should not be to make great trainers less successful.

    It should be to ensure that, in twenty years’ time, there are still enough other trainers left to compete with them.

    1. Vincent O’Brien’s Guide to Conformation…

      A lovely old video in which Vincent O’Brien discusses conformation in a yearling…
    2. Henry Cecil- a belated tribute

      With the passing of Henry Cecil in June it is worth considering his place in the pantheon of the great trainers. It is also worth looking back on the subsequent impact of his runners in the breeding sheds.  Surprisingly, for such a successful trainer over such a long career, Henry trained very few important stallions.

      Ranking as a trainer

      As a ten time champion trainer, its obvious that Henry Cecil must take very high rank amongst the list of great trainers.  However for me, there are a few factors that temper my enthusiasm for ranking him anywhere near Vincent O’Brien, who is the benchmark for trainers.

      1. Firstly Henry had it easy. He came from a privileged background being a stepson of champion trainer and Royal trainer Cecil Boyd Rochfort and his early marriage to Julie Murless (daughter of another champion trainer and Royal trainer) meant he was quickly seated at racing’s top table.  His starting position would have taken others a decade or more to achieve.

      2. Apart from Wolver Hollow’s Eclipse in his first season his early years were underwhelming. A lot of tributes talk about Henry’s instinctive way with horses, however to me if there is nothing significant happening for a number of years it looks less like genius and more of a gradual tweaking of the same old methods used by others. Henry may have had a reputation for working his horses hard at Newmarket but he wasn’t much of an innovator in his methods. Gradual improvements in staff, methods and stock are a road map to training success but they are rooted in the ordinary rather than in genius.

      3. Henry largely ignored the rest of the world. Henry may have felt that British racing was the best in the world but in his heyday he spurned many opportunities for his runners overseas. His tally of two US wins (Yashmak  in 1997 and Midday in 2009) is very underwhelming given the relatively easy pickings available in the US for turf horses. His tally of 6 Irish classics is also less than one would expect.  In my view, his Anglo-centric approach didn’t do justice to his horses or his owners by ignoring the opportunities that were available throughout the world.

      4. He didn’t succeed with sprinters. I don’t know the reason for this but it is noticeable that he never trained a really top class sprinter and almost all of the big sprints are absent from his cv.

      Great Stallions trained by Henry

      none

      Very Good Stallions trained

      1. Kris (1976 Sharpen Up- Doubly Sure by Reliance).

      Kris was a superb miler who should have won the Guineas and won 14 of his 16 races. His first crop yielded the outstanding Cecil trained triple crown winner Oh So Sharp (1982 Kris ex Oh So Fair by Graustark). His second crop yielded Irish 2000 Guineas winner Flash of Steel (1983 Kris ex Spark of Fire by Run the Gauntlet). His final career stats show 75 black type winners from 846 foals, a very creditable 9% and include other Group 1 winners such as Shavian, Rafha and Balisada. However Kris is regarded as a fillies sire and no important sire sons have emerged to continue his male line.

      2. Diesis (1980 Sharpen Up- Doubly Sure by Reliance)

      A brother to Kris, Diesis was a brilliant two year old who achieved a rare Middle Park, Dewhurst double.  Like his brother he made an immediate impression with an outstanding filly in his first crop-namely Diminuendo (1985 Diesis ex Cacti by Tom Rolfe).  Other Oaks winners followed in Ramruma (1996 Diesis ex Princess of Man by Green God) and Love Divine (1997 Diesis ex La Sky by Law Society). However unlike his brother there was not the same sex bias amongst his offspring who ranged from sprinters such as Keen Hunter (1987 Diesis ex Love’s Reward by Nonoalco) to milers such as Docksider (1995 Diesis ex Pump by Forli) and superb 10 furlong performers in Halling (1991 Diesis ex Dance Machine by Green Dancer) and Elmaamul (1987 Diesis ex Modena by Roberto). His final stud statistics showed 82 black type winners from 1069 foals (8%) and his sire line is just barely hanging on through Muhtathir (a son of Elmaamul and sire of Doctor Dino) and Halling who  has a few sons at stud.

      Really Disappointing Stallions Trained by Henry

      1. Reference Point (1984 Mill Reef ex Home on the Range by Habitat)

      An above average Derby winner who won a Futurity at two and seemed to have the pedigree to succeed at stud.  He was very disappointing and his early death was not lamented by many breeders.

      2. Hello Gorgeous (1977 Mr Prospector ex Bonny Jet by Jet Jewel)

      As a winner of a Dante and Futurity (aka Racing Post Trophy) and a son of the new American sensation Mr Prospector, Hello Gorgeous proved popular at Coolmore and big money was paid for many of his early offspring. He was a disaster and led to a distrust of sons of Mr Prospector in Europe that took a long time to fade.  His final stats show 10 black type winners from 510 foals (2%).

      2. Old Vic (1986 Sadler’s Wells ex Cockade by Derring Do).

      From the first crop of Sadler’s Wells, Old Vic was a brilliant winner of the Irish and French Derby’s. Retired to Dalham Hall he was very disappointing as a flat sire before proving to be an exceptional jumps stallion.

      Mixed bag

      Of Henry’s other Derby winners, Oath (1996 Fairy King ex Sheer Audacity by Troy) and Commander in Chief(1990 Dancing Brave ex Slightly Dangerous by Roberto) found themselves in Japan and failed to make much impact.  Slip Anchor (1982 Shirley Heights ex Sayonara by Birkhahn) did reasonably well, but as a stamina source was never fashionable enough to attract sufficient high quality mares.

      National Hunt sires

      Henry was associated with many great stayers such as Le Moss (1975 Le Levanstall ex Feemoss by Ballymoss),  Ardross (1976 Run the Gauntlet ex Le Melody by Levmoss) and Buckskin (1973 Yelapa ex Bete A Bon Dieu by Herbager) . He trained a lot of other horses who also made names as national hunt stallions such as Gunner B (1973 Royal Gunner ex Sweet Councillor by Privy Councillor), Moscow Society (Nijinsky ex Afifa by Dewan). In addition to the previously mentioned leading jumps sire Old Vic, he also trained the King George winner King’s Theatre (1991 Sadler’s Wells ex Regal Beauty by Princely Native) who became champion NH sire.

      Conclusions

      Henry’s standing as a great trainer is not in doubt and only Michael Stoute has stronger claims to be regarded as the outstanding British trainer of the modern era. A trainers job is to train horses for the racecourse and he has no influence on whether they succeed as stallions. It is of no relevance to Henry’s standing as a trainer that he was not associated with any horses who proved to be great stallions. It is just one of those statistical curiosities. His  success as a trainer of stayers inevitably meant that he was associated with horses who ended up earning their oats as national hunt stallions. Henry’s greatest project, Frankel is now embarking on his stud career and he has every prospect of success, so there could yet be a great stallion associated with the Cecil name.

       

       

    3. Camelot- a new legend?

      Camelot has delivered Montjeu, his first Guineas winner. His success didn’t look likely until inside the final furlong, but in the end he was probably worth a little bit more than his official margin of a neck.  His success confirms the greatness of both Montjeu and Aidan O’Brien.

      Aidan O’Brien

      Camelot was Aidan O’Brien’s sixth 2000 Guineas winner, following King of Kings, Rock of Gibraltar, Footstepsinthesand, George Washington and Henrythenavigator. All of them were making their seasonal debuts and to me the ability to get a horse fully fit on the gallops is one of the hallmarks of a top trainer. The ability to learn from past mistakes and the knowledge that comes from training a lot of the members of the same family or offspring of the same sire can give trainers that extra edge. Aidan has trained more Montjeu’s than anybody else and he was quick to acknowledge that he made mistakes in prepping a previous Racing Post Trophy winner St Nicholas Abbey for the Guineas and he clearly didn’t repeat those mistakes with Camelot.

      Camelot’s pedigree

      Camelot cost 525,000 guineas at the 2010 Tattersalls October sales which made him the highest priced yearling by Montjeu sold that year.  For that sort of money you would expect him to be both handsome and especially well bred. His pedigree is undoubtedly high class although in truth it has lacked a superstar until Camelot, so we can assume he was a very taking physical specimen.

      Tarfah

      Camelot’s dam Tarfah was unraced at two, won three of her 4 starts including a listed handicap at Ascot as a three year old and then continued the good work by winning the listed Snowdrop stakes and the Group 3 Dahlia stakes in her first two runs at four. She failed to trouble the judge in the Windsor Forest run at York that year when Ascot was being redeveloped and was last seen disappointing in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom in June 2006. She was reported as having burst a blood vessel that day and was not seen again on the track but retired with a very creditable record of 5 wins from 8 starts. Tarfah’s first foal was a filly by Galileo who cost 240,000 Guineas and named Ideal.  Trained by David Wachman, from her seven starts to date she won a 10 furlong maiden at Clonmel but is clearly a long way short of top class.

      Fickle

      Tarfah’s dam Fickle was trained by Michael Bell and ran five times as a three year old. She won her maiden at Brighton on her third start and won a listed race on her final start at Newcastle when she got the run of the race and sprung a surprise when winning at 20-1. With the black type secured it was presumably decided to retire her to the paddocks.  At stud Tarfah was by a long way her best offspring with her only other winner being the very modest Sistine who is closely related to Tarfah being by Dubai Destination (a son of Kingmambo).

      Fade

      Camelot’s third dam Fade was unraced but she proved a useful producer, leaving 8 winners from 8 runners including 3 other stakes performers besides Fickle in Faru (by Mtoto) , Birdie (by Alhaarth) and Fading Light (by King’s Best).

      One over Parr

      Camelot’s fourth dam One Over Parr (by Reform out of Seventh Bride) was very useful .  She won the Cheshire Oaks and the Lancashire Oaks, both Group 3’s and was a full sister to an Epsom Oaks winner in the 1974 winner Polygamy who gave Pat Eddery his first English Classic on the day that I was born ! As for the name One Over Parr history buffs might recall that Henry VIII’s sixth wife was called Catherine Parr hence with a dam of Seventh Bride, the name One Over Parr was very clever.

      Kincsem

      For those who really, really like to delve into a pedigree (and my thanks to the poster who notified me), Camelots 17th dam is no less than the Hungarian supermare Kincsem! Kincsem retired with a record of 54 wins from 54 starts and was dominant on the continent before crossing the Channel and claiming the Goodwood Cup in 1878. For a detailed account of her racing and broodmare career click here

      Nicks

      Tarfah is a daughter of Kingmambo and he has combined very well with daughters of  Montjeu’s sire Sadler’s Wells.  Kingmambo has sired Henrythenavigator, El Condor Pasa and Divine Proportions on this cross and his son King’s Best has produced Workforce out of a Sadler’s Wells mare.

      Conclusion

      Camelot is an unbeaten Group 1 winner at two and now a Guineas winner at three. The next logical target is the Derby and he is already an odds on shot in most books for the Epsom showpiece.  The assumption is that being by Montjeu he should have no difficulty in staying 12 furlongs and the triple crown is also now being talked about.  However before getting carried away with the hype, it is worth remembering that neither Tarfah nor Fickle were ever asked to race beyond 10 furlongs and as racehorses themselves the sires in the lower half of the pedigree were all sprinters or milers with the exception of Persepolis who won the Prix Lupin over 10 furlongs. The slight concern is that winning a Guineas shows Camelot to be an atypical Montjeu and perhaps he will also not stay as well as the other high class Montjeu colts.  I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to back him at odds on  for the Derby, however for the sake of racing I fervently hope that he goes on to claim the holy grail that is the triple crown, and for which we have been waiting 42 years to find a successor to Nijinsky.

      CAMELOT (GB) 2009 c b

      Montjeu
      (IRE) 1996
      Sadler’s
      Wells (USA) 1981
      Northern
      Dancer (CAN) 1961
      Nearctic
      (USA) 1954
      Natalma
      (USA) 1957
      Fairy
      Bridge (USA) 1975
      Bold
      Reason (USA) 1968
      Special
      (USA) 1969
      Floripedes
      (FR) 1985
      Top
      Ville (IRE) 1976
      High
      Top (IRE) 1969
      Sega
      Ville (USA) 1968
      Toute
      Cy (FR) 1979
      Tennyson
      (FR) 1970
      Adele
      Toumignon (IRE) 1971
      Tarfah
      (USA) 2001
      Kingmambo
      (USA) 1990
      Mr
      Prospector (USA) 1970
      Raise
      A Native (USA) 1961
      Gold
      Digger (USA) 1962
      Miesque
      (USA) 1984
      Nureyev
      (USA) 1977
      Pasadoble
      (USA) 1979
      Fickle
      (GB) 1996
      Danehill
      (USA) 1986
      Danzig
      (USA) 1977
      Razyana
      (USA) 1981
      Fade
      (GB) 1988
      Persepolis
      (FR) 1979
      One
      Over Parr (GB) 1972