Dubious about Dubai but not Dubawi

From the 22nd of January to the 7th of February, Dubawi had six runners on the all-weather. All six won. The six victories earned the lucky owners £15,811, an average of £2,635 or $4,130 per victory. These are the amounts before deductions for the winning trainers, jockeys and stable staff and before entry fees,riding fees and travel costs are taken into account. If the owners netted £1,400 ($2,192) per victory they would be doing well.

Meanwhile in Dubai, Dubawi’s owner Sheikh Mohammed unveiled the Meydan track. Press reviews were very positive. Estimates of its construction cost ranged from $1.25 billion to $2.4 billion. It has a 1km long grandstand and seating for 60,000.  It will do well to even cover its running costs as general admission is free (but there is a charge for the grandstand). Gambling is prohibited so there is no revenue from that quarter.  It is intended as a visitor attraction and showcase for Dubai which is another way of saying that no one was ever asked to justify the cost. Meydan replaces the Nad Al Sheba track (which had world class facilities) and to me this development represents the most obscene folly and waste of resources imaginable.

 It may not be considered appropriate to criticise the man who has invested more than anyone else in the racing industry for the past three decades but this was utter madness.  In order to pay for his monument to folly Sheikh Mohammed will have to win one million races on the all-weather. Is there a better indicator of the wasteful excesses of the middle-eastern rulers and the pitiful prize-money in the UK, than this fact?

None of Duabwi’s 5 individual winners (Duellist, Monterosso, Your Lad, Ostentation and Solstice) are likely to become celebrated names in the history of the turf. However signs are promising for Dubawi to become a significant new stallion from what looks like becoming an exceptional crop of stallions foaled in 2002 (others included Shamardal, Oratario, Footstepsinthesand and  Motivator). In addition he looks like he will overtake Nayef, Medicean and Zamindar as being the best Mr Prospector line stallion (with runners to date) standing in Europe.

Dubawi’s Racecourse Career

Dubawi was the first of Dubai Millennium’s offspring to appear on the racetrack and no doubt it was very pleasing to Sheikh Mohammed to see him make a winning debut at Goodwood in June. He followed up in the Group 3 Superlative stakes at Newmarket and concluded his unbeaten two year old season with a victory in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh. His victories had been achieved on ground that varied from good to firm to yielding at the Curragh. He went into winter quarters as a leading classic prospect and indeed such was their regard for Dubawi, Godophin went and purchased Berenson who was runner-up in the National Stakes.  Berenson became another victim of the ‘big blue hole’ that is Godolphin and was never seen on the racecourse again.

Dubawi wintered in Dubai and such was his work and performance in some of Godolphins private trials that he started favourite for the 2000 Guineas. He finished fifth behind Footstepsinthesand but was beaten only three lengths. His defeat was blamed on the good to firm ground. He resumed winning ways and achieved an impressive classic success in the Irish Guineas on good ground, defeating Oratario by two lengths. He was then sent to Epsom where he ran creditably to be third behind Motivator, but it was obvious that 12 furlongs was farther than optimal. Given a break until August he reappeared in the Jacques le Marois and he put up his best ever performance in defeating Whipper, Valixir and the previously undefeated Divine Proportions. Dubawi was next seen in the QEII at Ascot and he was made favourite and expected to wrap-up the title of European champion miler. Instead he was beaten 3/4’s of a length by the five year old Starcraft with many people questioning Frankie Dettori’s tactics.

That proved to be Dubawi’s final racecourse appearance. He never made the Breeders Cup and retired as the winner of five of his 8 starts including three Group 1’s. He had shown brilliance but also quirkiness as he had drifted across the track on a number of occasions (a tendency he shared with another son of Dubai Millennium now at stud, Echo of Light). He seemed versatile as to the going with only firm ground (as in the Guineas) being unsuitable.  He was clearly a brilliant miler, he had shown guts in running well over 12 furlongs at Epsom and it was surprising that he was never asked to run over 10 furlongs, a distance that would have seemed ideal for him.

Pedigree

As could be expected of any representative of Dubai Millennium’s only crop, Dubawi owns an impressive pedigree. His dam Zomaradah went from winning a maiden to winning the Italian Oaks. She subsequently maintained a high level of form adding Group successes in the EP Taylor stakes, the Royal Whip and the Premio Lydia Tesio and she finished a close third in the 1999 Breeders Cup Fillies & Mares Turf. Zomaradah ranks as the best offspring of Deploy (by Shirley Heights)who was runner-up in the Irish Derby and who was just one of the many celebrated offspring of Slightly Dangerous.

Dubawi’s granddam Jawaher ran five times without success but she was a daughter of High Tern who produced Derby winner High Rise (by High Estate by Shirley Heights).  Dubawi’s 4th dam Sunbittern is the dam of classic placed High Hawk (by Shirley Heights) and High Hawk was subsequently dam of In The Wings. No doubt all these Shirley Heights connections led to the selection of Deploy as a mate for Jawaher.

Dubai Millemmium left behind only 56 foals before his premature death. Dubawi was his only Group 1 winner and he was supported by the Group 2 winner (and nutcase) Echo of Light and Group 3 winner Belenus. After his death Sheikh Mohammed set about buying all the offspring of his favourite horse.  In hindsight with 9% black type winners Dubai Millennium had the makings of a very good but unexceptional sire given the opportunities he was afforded.

 Dubawi’s stud career to date

Dubawi’s first runners last year saw him crowned champion first season sire by winners (34). In addition to quantity his first crop included Group 2 winners Poet’s Voice (ex Bright Tiara by Chief’s Crown) and Sand Vixen (ex Fur Will Fly by Petong). This crop was conceived off an initial fee of £25000 and this remained his fee in 2007. He spent the 2008 season in Kildangan in Ireland at €40,000 before returning to Dalham Hall for 2009 season at a fee of £15000.  His initial success has seen this rise ot £20000 for the current season which seems quite reasonable to me. Dubawi has also shuttled to Australia and his first crop of two year olds are also now making a mark with Cellarmaster recently winning a Group 3 in New Zealand and finishing runner-up in a Group 2.

Conclusion.

It would be foolish to put too much weight on a flurry of low level winners at this time of the year. However it is certainly encouraging that Dubawi is maintaining his momentum as his runners mature from two to three.  As a sire he can offer breeders a very good prospect of getting a winner and a reasonable prospect of a high class winner at that.  The best is yet to come and if Sheikh Mohammed wants to take his mind off Dubai’s debt crisis and his own profligacy he can console himself with the thought that he controls one of the most promising young stallions in Europe.

 

 

DUBAWI (IRE) 2002 c b

Dubai
Millennium (GB) 1996
Seeking
The Gold (USA) 1985
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Raise
A Native (USA) 1961
Gold
Digger (USA) 1962
Con
Game (USA) 1974
Buckpasser
(USA) 1963
Broadway
(USA) 1959
Colorado
Dancer (IRE) 1986
Shareef
Dancer (USA) 1980
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Sweet
Alliance (USA) 1974
Fall
Aspen (USA) 1976
Pretense
(USA) 1963
Change
Water (USA) 1969
Zomaradah
(GB) 1995
Deploy
(GB) 1987
Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975
Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Hardiemma
(GB) 1969
Slightly
Dangerous (USA) 1979
Roberto
(USA) 1969
Where
You Lead (USA) 1970
Jawaher
(IRE) 1989
Dancing
Brave (USA) 1983
Lyphard
(USA) 1969
Navajo
Princess (USA) 1974
High
Tern (IRE) 1982
High
Line (GB) 1966
Sunbittern
(GB) 1970

2010- the year of Montjeu?

The future looks very bright for Montjeu. We commented on St Nicholas Abbey after his win in the Beresford and he then followed up with a very impressive performance in the Racing Post Trophy. He was priced at 5/2 for Epsom which was understandable given the manner of his success and the fact that Montjeu’s previous Derby winners Authorized and Motivator both also triumphed at Doncaster. One week later and Montjeu produces another potential superstar when Jan Vermeer put up a superb front running performance in Criterium International at Saint Cloud. Joshua Tree had earlier won the Group 2 Royal Lodge meaning that Ballydoyle is host to three top two year old colts by Montjeu. In all cases the horses have what you might call ‘upper middle class’ rather than stellar pedigrees…

St Nicholas Abbey-pedigree.

Leaping Water, the dam of St Nicholas Abbey was unraced. She was by Sure Blade who won a QEII over a mile. However like many sons of Kris, he was a disappointing sire with Needle Gun being his only really top class performer.  Leaping Water is already the dam of Grammarian (by Definite Article) who was a dual Grade 2 winner in the States. She is also the dam of Cascata (by Montjeu)who won on her debut last year for Luca Cumani but has failed to build on it this year. Interestingly she cost 95,000 Guineas as a yearling compared to St Nicholas Abbey who cost 200,000 guineas.

St Nicholas Abbey’s granddam Flamenco Wave was a top class 2yo winning the Moyglare Stakes for John Oxx but she failed to train on. At stud she has been a major success becoming dam of Group 1 winners Starborough (by Soviet Star), Aristotle (Sadler’s Wells) and Ballingarry (Sadler’s Wells). Given the family’s success with Sadler’s Wells the decision to choose Montjeu was hardly surprising. It has now paid off handsomely and I expect St Nicholas Abbey to follow in the hoofprints of Motivator and Authorized and gain Epsom success.

Jan Vermeer pedigree

Jan Vermeer never passed through a sales ring but on pedigree his price would have been unlikely to exceed the 200,000 guineas paid for St Nicholas Abbey. His dam Shadow Song won over 11 furlongs in France and Jan Vermeer is her first foal. She is by Pennekamp who won the Dewhurst and Guineas but he disappointed as a sire and to date he hasn’t made much impact as a broodmare sire.  Shadow Song is a half sister to Midnight Air who was a top class 2yo. Midnight Air retired as the winner of the May Hill Stakes but she was also first past the post in the Fillies Mile before being demoted to last by the stewards . Their dam Evening Air was unraced and her dam Nellie Forbes only raced twice. Going further back Jan Vermeer’s 4th dam Comely Nell was also unraced but it didn’t stop her entering the history books as the dam of Bold Forbes who won a Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes in 1976.

Montjeu vs Galileo

 Jan Vermeer and St Nicholas Abbey have shown comparable levels of form. That said I believe the turn of foot shown by St Nicholas Abbey to quicken from last to first was more impressive than the all the way success of Jan Vermeer.  Talk of St Nicholas Abbey being a Guineas contender is far from fanciful. I for one would love to see such a success as I think it would end the debate over who is a better sire -Montjeu or Galileo. Currently Montjeu has a major gap on his cv with his failure to sire any top milers but apart from that I rate his overall achievments more highly than those of Galileo.   Montjeu has outperformed Galileo in the major classics, despite smaller foal numbers and lesser mares. He has also significantly outperformed Galileo in the Southern Hemisphere. However fashion and Coolmore have dictated that a sire like Galileo who can also sire the occasional top miler and the occasional top 2yo is to be given top billing. Even after his breakthrough success in 2005 Montjeu had to play second fiddle to Sadler’s Wells.  There is no shame in that but from 2006 onwards he has been competing somewhat unsuccessfully with Galileo for the elite mares. That to me is a shame as I think Montjeu deserves to be regarded as the best stallion in Ireland. Hopefully 2010 will prove that point.

JAN VERMEER (IRE) 2007 c b

Montjeu
(IRE) 1996
Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975
Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985
Top
Ville (IRE) 1976
High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979
Tennyson
(FR) 1970
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Shadow
Song (IRE) 2002
Pennekamp
(USA) 1992
Bering
(GB) 1983
Arctic
Tern (USA) 1973
Beaune
(FR) 1974
Coral
Dance (FR) 1978
Green
Dancer (USA) 1972
Carvinia
(FR) 1970
Evening
Air (USA) 1982
J
O Tobin (USA) 1974
Never
Bend (USA) 1960
Hill
Shade (USA) 1965
Nellie
Forbes (USA) 1977
Secretariat
(USA) 1970
Comely
Nell (USA) 1962

 

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (IRE) 2007 c b

Montjeu
(IRE) 1996
Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975
Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985
Top
Ville (IRE) 1976
High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979
Tennyson
(FR) 1970
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Leaping
Water (GB) 1990
Sure
Blade (USA) 1983
Kris
(GB) 1976
Sharpen
Up (GB) 1969
Doubly
Sure (GB) 1971
Double
Lock (GB) 1975
Home
Guard (USA) 1969
St
Padina (GB) 1966
Flamenco
Wave (USA) 1986
Desert
Wine (USA) 1980
Damascus
(USA) 1964
Anne
Campbell (USA) 1973
Armada
Way (USA) 1976
Sadair
(USA) 1962
Hurry
Call (USA) 1960

No mystery here.

The Prix Morny was expected to see Cranford Cliffs prove himself a superstar.  Instead he finished only third behind narrow winner Arcano.  Arcano is now unbeaten in three runs after winning a Newmarket maiden and the Group 2 July stakes also at Newmarket.  His win wasn’t visually impressive and more improvement will be required if he is to be considered a serious Guineas prospect for next year, although the time of the race set a new track record.

 We are still learning about Oasis Dream and Arcarno’s dam Tariysha was unraced. She is by the outstanding performer Daylami who apart from Irish Derby winner Grey Swallow failed to live up to expectations at stud and is now plying his trade in South Africa. It is early days to assess him as a broodmare sire but he is also broodmare sire this Summer of Group winner Summer Fete (by Pivotal). 

Arcarno’s granddam Tarwiya was a very useful filly for John Oxx at both two and three years of age. At two she had eight runs (unusual for a John Oxx inmate), she took five runs to break her maiden but by the end of the season her cv included wins in a Listed race, the Group 3 C.L Weld stakes and a second place in the Group 1 Moyglare stakes.  She failed to win at three but did manage a very respectable third to Marling in the Irish 1000 Guineas. At stud she has produced a few winners but nothing of significance. One of her non-winning daughters Tahara is the dam of Godfrey Street who won a Flying Childers. Given the pedigree, a price of 90,000 Guineas seemed right when Arcano was offered at the Tattersalls October sales. It is a nice balanced pedigree with the only inbreeding being Mill Reef 4×4 and the Northern Dancer 4X5 that appears in Oasis Dream’s pedigree. Given the way Arcarno stayed on to win, connections might be tempted to step him up to 7 furlongs for the Dewhurst or alternatively they may target the Middle Park which his sire won in 2002.

Arcano is the Spanish word for mystery but there is no mystery about the source of his talent. Oasis Dream has been the story of the Summer, producing a multitude of Group winners across a range of distances.  Twelve months ago it was clear that the best sire in Britain was Pivotal followed by Dansili- now Oasis Dream has overtaken Dansili and Pivotal’s position is under threat.  As the table below shows, since the start of July, Oasis Dream has sired the winners of 10 Group races. He has had three Group winning Two year olds (Misheer, Arcarno and Showcasing), Midday and Arcarno were Group 1 winners and Aqlaam and Main Aim were runners up in Group 1’s. It is a remarkable sequence of success and these results were produced from crop fees of £25000 to £30000.  Recession or not, I expect him to stand for c.£60k next year, he has large crops in the pipeline, he seems to work with all sorts of distaff lines and it seems that only premature death can stop him becoming a hugely significant European sire.

  

Date Horse age sex  Race and distance Dam (broodmare sire)
 23/08/09  Arcano 2 f  Prix Morny Gr 1 (6f)  Tariysha (Daylami)
 23/08/09  Lady Jane Digby 4 f Walther Jacobs Gr 3 (10f)  Scandalette (Niniski)
 19/08/09  Showcasing 2 f Gimcrack Gr 2 (6f)  Arabesque (Zafonic
 18/08/09 Monitor Closely 3 c Great Voltigeur Gr 2 (12f)  Independence (Selkirk)
 16/08/09  Mullein 4 f Flying Fillies Stakes lstd (6f)  Gipsy Moth (Efisio)
 16/08/09  Sri Putra 3 c Prix Guillaume D’Ornano Gr 2 (10f)  Wendylina (In the Wings)
 01/08/09  Midday 3 f Nassau Stakes Gr 1 (10f)  Midsummer (Kingmambo)
 11/07/09  Tuscan Evening 4 f Royal Heroine Mile  Gr 2(8f) The Faraway Tree (Suave Dancer)
 11/07/09  Aqlaam 3 c Summer Mile Gr 2 (8f)  Bourbonella (Rainbow Quest)
 09/07/09  Arcano 2 c July Stakes Gr 2 (6f)  Tariysha (Daylami)
 08/07/09  Misheer 2 f Cherry Hinton Stakes Gr 2 (6f)  All For Laura (Cadeaux Genereux)

 

ARCANO (IRE) 2007 c b

Oasis
Dream (GB) 2000
Green
Desert (USA) 1983
Danzig
(USA) 1977
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Pas
De Nom (USA) 1968
Foreign
Courier (USA) 1979
Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Courtly
Dee (USA) 1968
Hope
(IRE) 1991
Dancing
Brave (USA) 1983
Lyphard
(USA) 1969
Navajo
Princess (USA) 1974
Bahamian
(IRE) 1985
Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Sorbus
(IRE) 1975
Tariysha
(IRE) 2002
Daylami
(IRE) 1994
Doyoun
(IRE) 1985
Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Dumka
(FR) 1971
Daltawa
(IRE) 1989
Miswaki
(USA) 1978
Damana
(FR) 1981
Tarwiya
(IRE) 1989
Dominion
(GB) 1972
Derring-do
(GB) 1961
Picture
Palace (GB) 1961
Touraya
(IRE) 1984
Tap
On Wood (IRE) 1976
Takrana
(GB) 1977

Montjeu jumps to the fore

Sadler’s Wells has had a profound effect on the jump racing scene, even more so than his impact on the flat. A look at the current jump stallions standings shows Sadler’s Wells himself in 15th position by prize money and an astonishing 7 of his sons are ahead of him in the stallion rankings. These are Old Vic, Oscar, Accordion, Saddlers’ Hall, Kayf Tara, King’s Theatre and the new kid on the block Montjeu who sits one place ahead of his sire in the table. To date in the 2008/09 season Montjeu has been represented by 60 runners and 11 winners and considering that his oldest progeny have just turned seven he is likely to move nearer the top of the table over the coming years.  Montjeu’s merits as a jumps sire were highlighted over the Christmas period when he sired a grade 1 hurdles winner, and two placed grade 1 runners. The placed runners were Blue Bajan (2002 Montjeu-Gentle Thoughts by Darshaan) who finished a close up third to Harchibald in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and Won in the Dark (2004 Montjeu-Mesata by Lion Cavern) who ran Sublimity to half a length in the Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown. Won in the Dark had previously scored in Grade 1 company when running away with the champion 4 year old hurdle at Punchestown and he is currently quoted at 25-1 for the Champion Hurdle. However Montjeu’s Christmas cracker was Hurricane Fly (2004 Montjeu-Scandisk by Kenmare) who won his second Grade 1 in spectacular fashion when quickening right away from the field in the champion novice hurdle at Leopardstown. Hurricane Fly showed real acceleration after the last and it was no surprise that he had been more than useful on the flat where he once won a listed race defeating no less than Literato and Spirit One in  France.  He is now clear favourite for the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham and he is even quoted in the Champion Hurdle betting by some firms. The dam of Hurricane Fly produced another stakes horse in Hunzy (by Desert King) who picked up some cheap Italian black type. Hurricane Fly’s second dam Yankee Lady was a sister to Yankee Gold who won a Royal Whip and Ballymoss Stakes. She was by Lord Gayle who is now in so many National Hunt pedigrees because of the impact of his son the champion sire Strong Gale. Hurricane Fly was not bred for the National Hunt game but it is no surprise that he has shown such talent in the field. As for Montjeu’s credentials as a jumps sire, they could hardly have been better. Sadlers Wells was an outstanding sire of hurdlers siring Istabraq, Theatreworld, Pridwell and French Ballerina amongst others. Montjeu’s broodmare sire Top Ville sired a number of top jumps sires and promising younger sires including the tragically short lived Toulon, Beneficial, Un Desperado, Pistolet Bleu and Norwich. Had Montjeu not been such a success on the flat no doubt he would now be a very stallion at Coolmores National Hunt division. As it is he seems set to follow in his fathers footsteps as a top class stallion in both realms.

HURRICANE FLY (IRE) 2004 c b

Montjeu
(IRE) 1996
Sadler’s
Wells (USA) 1981
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Nearctic
(USA) 1954
Natalma
(USA) 1957
Fairy
Bridge (USA) 1975
Bold
Reason (USA) 1968
Special
(USA) 1969
Floripedes
(FR) 1985
Top
Ville (IRE) 1976
High
Top (IRE) 1969
Sega
Ville (USA) 1968
Toute
Cy (FR) 1979
Tennyson
(FR) 1955
Adele
Toumignon (IRE) 1971
Scandisk
(IRE) 1995
Kenmare
(FR) 1975
Kalamoun
(GB) 1970
Zeddaan
(GB) 1965
Khairunissa
(GB) 1960
Belle
Of Ireland (GB) 1964
Milesian
(GB) 1953
Belle
Of The Ball (GB) 1958
Yankee
Lady (IRE) 1977
Lord
Gayle (USA) 1965
Sir
Gaylord (USA) 1959
Sticky
Case (USA) 1958
Ceol
An Oir (GB) 1961
Vimy
(FR) 1952
Pal
An Oir (IRE) 1956