Tag: coolmore

Coolmore’s 2024 fees (Part 2-stallions below €20k)

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I received a lot of feedback on my post previous post about Coolmore’s fees. For the avoidance of doubt:
a) I don’t have a grudge against Coolmore.
b) I try to be impartial and I apply the same standards to other studs.
c) My comments are based on the published fee. Most breeders will get a better rate. A lower rate would lead to a more favourable assessment of the sires.

If we return our focus to the Coolmore roster, they have 9 stallions standing for under €20k. This is a more competitive segment of the market, with nearly 50 Irish flat sires standing between €5k and €20k. The Coolmore roster is a mixture of the old and young, those dropping down having failed to make it a higher fee and younger unproven stallions. There is a spread of sprinters, milers and middle distance performers.
As before, I will include some Beatles lyrics in my assessments.

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1. Gleneagles €17,500 (€17,500) (2012 Galileo ex You’resothrilling by Storm Cat).
Verdict: A decent sire at this level but the market is unforgiving
Beatles Lyric Verdict: “That is, I think its not too bad“
He was retired at a fee of €60,000 with great things expected of him. He has not lived up to expectations but he has found his place in the world. He had a respectable year on the track in 2023, with three Group 2 winners, 6 Group 3 winners and a Guineas placing for Royal Scotsman. This wasn’t sufficient to stop his yearling median decline to just €21,000. His overall record shows 31 stakes winners (5%) which is ok for this fee level (but is based on crops conceived at much higher fees). He has lacked a superstar to put his name in lights but he has an exciting prospect in One Look (ex Holy Salt by Holy Roman Emperor) who earned rave reviews when she won the Goffs Million on her debut. However he will only have just 18 two year olds in 2024 which may stymie his efforts at market rehabilitation. Commercially, he needs to get back some market love and there may be better value in buying his offspring rather than breeding them for now..

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2. Australia €17,500 (€25,000)- (2011 by Galileo ex Ouija Board by Cape Cross)

Verdict: Slightly overpriced
Beatles Lyric Verdict: “But now these days are gone, I’m not so self assured”
Had a decent tally of 6 Group winners in 2023 and some wondered if Adelaide River could have won the Irish Derby under a more forceful ride. Over his career, he has amassed a decent tally of 5% stakes winners, but like Gleneagles he lacks real stars. His book dropped to 110 in 2023 from 155 in 2022 and his yearling median was c.€33k from a €25k fee so a price reset was predictable. I suspect they will shave his fee a little more in the coming years. I used to be more of a fan but we know his limitations at this stage. That said, he is not without his good points and for the right mare he would be worth considering if you could get movement on the price.

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3. Ten Sovereigns €17,500 (€17,500) (2016 No Nay Never ex Seeking Solace by Exceed and Excel)
Verdict: Too risky
Beatles Lyric Verdict: “With every mistake we must surely be learning”

He looked to be in trouble after a slow start by his progeny, but things picked up later in the season with a Group winner in Inquisitively (ex Ballyalla by Mind Games), a pair of Listed winners and a final European tally of 25 winners and 9 black type horses (along 2 more in North America). Unlike some other No Nay Nevers, he trained on to win a July Cup so that gives hope that his progeny will follow suit. His yearling results stayed steady with a median of c. €40k so he did enough to reassure the market. Given the numbers at his disposal, I thought his two year olds might have done a little more. At an unchanged fee, I would be reluctant to take a punt that a) progeny will train on well sufficiently for a star to emerge b) his smaller second crop (87 compared to 150 last year) will improve his standing.

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4. Calyx €12,500 (10,000)- (2016 Kingman ex Helleborine by Observatory)

Verdict: Nice first crop
Beatles Lyric Verdict: “Don’t Let me down”

Get a modest price increase which was warranted after a promising first crop. He had a pair of Group 2 winners in Classic Flower (ex Crown of Flowers by Garswood) and Persian Dreamer (ex Surprisingly by Galileo). These were supplemented by a US based Grade 3 winner in Zona Verde (ex Namibie by Dark Angel) and the Dewhurst third Eben Shaddad (ex Galileo’s Lady by Galileo) amongst 27 winners. Given he had a much smaller number of two year olds than Ten Sovereigns (103 vs 150) , his results were much the better of the two. He went somewhat under the radar but this was a decent start and he may be a bit of value.
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5. Magna Grecia €10,000 (15,000)- (2016 by Invincible Spirit ex Cabaret by Galileo)

Verdict: Disappointing first crop
Beatles Lyric Verdict: “there’s a shadow hanging over me“

As a Guineas winner and Vertem winner who was a half brother to St Marks Basilica, he seemed to have a reasonable chance of success. After a first crop that saw just 12 winners and a solitary Listed winner, his prospects are now a lot less rosy. His yearling median more than halved to under €20k and it’s difficult to see him turning things around. Incidentally, after a glut of ordinary sires I wonder how Invincible Spirit maintains his elevated reputation as a sire of sires?

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6. Footstepsinthesand €8,000 (€10,500) (2002 Giant’s Causeway ex Glatisant by Rainbow Quest)

Verdict: 16 disappointing crops 🙂
Beatles Lyrics: “And you are the one that makes me sad”

It’s difficult to find something new to write about Footstepsinthesand. Each year, I write that he is a very ordinary sire and should be avoided. In 2023 he had no Group winners and a solitary Listed winner. Despite that, his yearling median increased to €24k so (inexplicably) he remains popular despite his limitations.

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7. Holy Roman Emperor €8,000 (€10,000) (2004 Danehill ex L’On Vite by Secretariat)

Verdict: A decent sire at this level
Beatles Lyric Verdict: “And I say, it’s alright“

A solid sire at the money and a much better sire than the similarly priced Footstepsinthesand. He had a relatively quiet year on the track with a pair of Group 3 winners his best result in Europe. However, his career stats are good and he is operating at 5% stakes winners to foals of racing age. I think he is good option at that price especially with a yearling median last year of over €31k.

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8. The Antarctic €6,000 (na) (2020 Dark Angel ex Anna Law by Lawman)

Verdict: Leaves me cold
Beatles Lyric Verdict: “You can get it wrong but still you think that it’s alright”

I was surprised that they found a slot for this guy on the roster. His main selling point seems to be that he is a brother to Battash rather than his own accomplishments. He was a relatively modest Group 3 winner by Dark Angel who has yet to hit to mark with his sire sons. He may be ok commercially with his initial crops ,before the racetrack reveals their true merit. He is just one of many possible sources of cheap speed and it’s difficult to get overly excited about his prospects.

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9. Arizona €5,000 (€5,000)- (2017 No Nay Never ex Lady Ederle by English Channel)
Verdict: Will need a quick start or will be surplus to requirements
Beatles Lyric Verdict: “Nothin’ you can say, but you can learn how to play the game”
First runners this season so he will need a strong start or he will likely be moved on from a roster that is top heavy with No Nay Never’s. He had a 2023 yearling median of €19000 and these are part of his 66 strong crop of two year olds. It’s pure guesswork whether he will succeed and he is one for the gamblers.

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Coolmore’s 2024 fees (Part 1-stallions from €200k to €20k)

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2023 was a good year on the track for Ballydoyle with 20 Group/Grade 1 winners. Results weren’t nearly as impressive for Coolmore’s stallion roster. Their best placed stallions on the GB/Ire sires table were Galileo in 5th and No Nay Never in 10th. Disappointment with their Irish sires, will have been tempered somewhat by the performance of the Ashford based Justify. He impressed with 4 Group/Grade 1 winning two year olds this year, in a second crop that was considerably better than his first crop. It would be intriguing to see him spend a few seasons in Tipperary but that doesn’t seem to be on the cards.

The Irish roster now comprises 21 stallions. During the year we saw two departures in US Navy Flag and Circus Maximus (even before he had runners) and three new arrivals in Little Big Bear, Paddington and The Antarctic . Coolmore may never reclaim its dominance of the past few decades but it is still a formidable roster that covers a large percentage of Irish broodmares. There are no bargains at the published fees but presumably bar the most popular stallions there is room for negotiation which may make them better value.

Below is my assessment of their published fees for 2024, starting with the priciest sires. As the Beatles are once again in the charts I have also included a Beatles lyric that seems apt for each sire.

Stallion €2024 fee (€2023 fee)

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1. Wootton Bassett €200,000 (€150,000) (2008 Iffraaj ex Balladonia by Primo Dominie)

Verdict: Repaying their investment but no upside at price
Beatles Lyric Verdict: I’m fixing a hole
Wootton Bassett had a good year on the track. The imposing King of Steel (ex Eldacar by Verglas) was runner up in the Derby and subsequently triumphed in the Champion Stakes. His 131 two year olds featured Group 1 winners Bucanero Fuerte (ex Frida la Blonde by Elusive City) and Unquestionable (ex Strawberry Lace by Sea the Stars) and Group 2 winner River Tiber (ex Transcendence by Arcano).

His current career tally is 40 stakes winners from 620 foals of racing age (6%). This is not an elite sire percentage but he has covered large books of better credentialed mares (particularly Galileo mares) since his move to Ireland. He has 205 two year olds of 2023 and 170 yearlings waiting in the wings. In 2023 he covered he covered a mammoth book for 221 mares, including 49 of Coolmore’s own mares. With these crops to come,we can expect him to improve significantly on his 11th position in the sires table this year. He is a difficult sire to pigeon hole as his runners vary across the precocity and distance spectrum and he has worked with all sorts of broodmare sires. A €200,000 fee is steep for a sire who had a median of €220,000 this year (95 sold) -albeit off a €100,000 covering fee. Galileo was irreplaceable. Wootton Bassett is a stopgap who is being given every support. However, he is not that attractive as a commercial proposition and his stakes winning progeny percentage is modest, making him overpriced at his new fee.

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2. No Nay Never €150,000 (€175,000) (2011 Scat Daddy ex Cat’s Eye Witness by Elusive Quality)

Verdict: Overpriced and definitely not Danzig
Beatles Lyric Verdict: I’m coming down fast, but don’t let me break you

No Nay Never (NNN) had a marvellous season in 2022 with 3 Group 1 winning two year olds. In 2023, he had no Group 1 winners but he had three Group 2 winners (Les Pavots, Lake Forest and Matrika) and two Group 3 winning two year olds. In 2022, he seemed set to dominate the two year old sire rankings for a number of years. This no longer seems likely as that space has become much more crowded. He now faces competition from his stud mate Wootton Bassett, breakthrough sires like Havana Grey (£55,000) and Mehmas (€60,000) and 2023 first season sires like Blue Point (€60,000) and Too Darn Hot (£65,000). His yearling median was €157k off a €125k cover fee so his risk/reward ratio for commercial breeders is not appealing. Six figure fees are typically the preserve of potential classic sires and despite Meditate placing in the Irish Guineas this year, he is still (correctly) perceived as a two year old/sprinter sire. His career record is now 57 stakes winners from 958 foals of racing age (6%). He was unwisely compared with Danzig last year (18% stakes winners) but there is no comparison. There is also a view that his progeny can be ‘hot’ and difficult to handle. He attracted 190 mares this year with 101 of them being black type mares so there will be plenty of well bred representatives over the coming years. Coolmore is approaching saturation point with four of NNN’s sons on the roster (Arizona, Blackbeard, Little Big Bear and Ten Sovereigns) and its hard to think we need any more. As a two year old/sprinter sire he is overpriced relative to his competitors and he should be closer to €100k.

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3. Paddington €55,000 (na) (2020 Siyouni ex Modern Eagle by Montjeu)

Verdict: Would need to tick a few more boxes at that price
Beatles Lyric: “You say you got a real solution, Well, you know, We’d all love to see the plan”

This time last year he was just the winner of a back end Curragh maiden. He started 2023 in a handicap, before going on an unbeaten run that took in the Tetrarch Stakes, the Irish Guineas, the St James Palace, the Eclipse Stakes and the Sussex Stakes. At that stage he was inviting comparisons with Giant’s Causeway but his career finished tamely with defeats in the Juddmonte International and the QE2 Stakes.

Paddington cost €420,000 as a yearling. His dam was a Listed winner and granddam was runner up in the Prix De Diane (French Oaks) but its not a page that overly excites. He was undoubtedly high class and tough. On the other hand, his lack of precocity, the loss of prestige by his final two defeats and reservations about his pedigree mean that he is at a higher starting price than I expected. They are advertising him as being comparable on the track to Giant’s Causeway but he didn’t quite have that same toughness/constitution. St Mark’s Basilica offers a better package of performance and pedigree at a slightly cheaper price.

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4. St Mark’s Basilica €50,000 (65,000) (2018 Siyouni ex Cabaret by Galileo)

Verdict: a well credentialed but expensive gamble
Beatles Lyric: All I can tell you brother is you have to wait
A predictable dip in his fee for his third season and now facing internal competition from another son of Siyouni in Paddington for high end mares. Covered 173 mares this year and 160 in 2022 and his 10 foals sold had a median of c€94k so the market is still sanguine on his prospects. As I said in previous years he has a lot to recommend him on performance and pedigree and looks. I’d rate him as better relative value than Paddington but he is still a high risk and expensive gamble. Time will tell.

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5. Camelot €50,000 (€60,000)- (2009 by Montjeu ex Tarfah by Kingmambo)

Verdict: The quest for the holy grail continues
Beatles Lyric: Don’t You know that you can count me out
His fee has gone into reverse in the past few seasons after reaching €75,000 in 2022. Luxembourg added another Group 1 (Tattersalls Gold Cup) to his collection and Los Angeles picked up a late season Group one in the Criterium de Saint Cloud to give some respectability to his season. Blue Stocking went close in the Irish Oaks and overall there were 9 stakes winners this season. His yearling median increased to €98,451 albeit off a €60,000 fee so there was little room for error. His career stats are now 59 black type winners from 947 foals of racing age a ratio of 6%. He is undoubtedly a useful sire but as I said in previous years, I think his progeny flatter to deceive.

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6. Starspangledbanner €45,000 (€50,000) (2006 Choisir ex Gold Anthem by Made of Gold

Verdict: Pricey given his black type percentages
Beatles Lyric: Get back, Get Back to where you once belonged
I would have expected a greater reduction after a modest year on the track. Group 2 Rockfel winner, Carlas Way was the best of his European results and his career stats are now just 37 stakes winners from 869 foals of racing age (a very modest 4%). His yearling median in 2023 was almost unchanged at €60,000 which was a good return from a €22,500. However the value is now well gone for commercial breeders.

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7. Saxon Warrior €25,000 (€35,000) (2015 Deep Impact ex Maybe by Galileo)

Verdict: Disappointing and the battle seems lost
Beatles Lyric: Love has a nasty habit of disappearing overnight.

Breeders flocked to him after a strong end to 2022 by his first two year olds and he covered 264 mares. I can safely say he wont be attracting anything like those numbers this season after a very underwhelming year on the track. His best results were a Group 2 win for Lumiere Rock and a Group 3 for Greenland. His yearling average stayed respectable at €40,000 but he is a very hard sell at his current fee.

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8. Churchill €30,000 (€30,000)- (2014 by Galileo ex Meow by Storm Cat)

Verdict: A two hit wonder but loads of dud tracks
Beatles Lyric: Oh dear, what can I do?
Blue Rose Cen added three Group 1’s to her tally this year but Vadeni failed to add to his stellar 2022 season. Churchill is not a good sire but these two top performers have glossed over an otherwise very modest stud career. His current statistics show 201 winners from 677 foals of racing age and a woeful 14 stakes winners (2%). He still has large books in the wings having covered 227 mares this season, 108 in 2022 and 198 in 2021 so there could be more good horses to come but for me his limitations are such that he is well overpriced.

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9. Sioux Nation €27,500 (€17,500) (2015 Scat Daddy ex Dream the Blues by Oasis Dream)

Verdict: Don’t follow the herd on this
Beatles Lyric: “Well you can celebrate anything you want”
He has somewhat outperformed expectations and had a good year on the track with 3 Grp 2 winners and 5 Group three winners. He lacks a real superstar with the classic placed and Challenge Stakes winners Matilda Picotte being his best runner to date. His sales results have been encouraging with a yearling average of over €45k in 2023 so you can see why Coolmore were tempted to increase his fee. However, he will have his smallest crop of two year olds next season, so he may go a little quiet next season. His stakes winning percentage is currently 4% (13 from 301 foals) which is nothing special. He started out marketed as a sire of cheap speed/precocity but at his new fee he will have to start throwing his share of Group 1 winners. There are big crops to come after he covered an insane 289 mares in 2023 and 221 in 2022 and I think he will struggle with these loftier expectations.

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10. Little Big Bear €27,500 (na)- (2020 by No Nay Never ex Adventure Seeker by Bering)

Verdict: Like Paddington, another overpriced bear
Beatles Lyric: “Roll up, for the mystery tour”

An impressive two year old who put up a top performance in winning the Phoenix Stakes by 7 lengths along with three other victories. Trained for the Guineas, he ran no sort of race before redeeming himself somewhat in the Grp 2 Sandy Lane Stakes. He was runner up in the Commonwealth Cup to Shaquille before ending his career with a flop in the July Cup. He has an interesting pedigree as his third dam is the great middle distance mare All Along. His dam is by Bering and was best over 10 furlongs but ran respectably over 12. None of these maternal influences seem to have had much bearing (or Bering :)) on Little Big Bears aptitudes which mirrored his sires profile linked to speed and precocity. Its impossible to say if he will succeed as a sire but we can predict big crops, a gradual reduction in fee over the next few years, early crops to sell better than later crop, limited support from Coolmore themselves and then the performances of his first runners determining if he has a future or not. The market likes speedy two year olds and he was very good in that capacity but he is more than fully priced.

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11. Sottsass €25,000 (25,000) (2016 Siyouni ex Starlet’s Sister by Galileo)

Verdict: One for gamblers but a reasonable bet
Beatles Lyric: “Let it be”

Sottsass has his first runners in 2024 so anyone using him this season will quickly have a fair idea of their fate,albeit his progeny would be expected to improve at three. He was a top racehorse winning an Arc, Ganay and French Derby out of a Galileo mare who is proving to be a top producer. Her record includes 7 time Grp 1 winner Sistercharlie, Grp 1 placed My Sister Nat and now Sottsass’s full brother Shin Emperor emerged as one of the top two year olds in Japan. With three sons of Siyouni on their roster, Coolmore will be hoping that he makes a mark as a sire of sires. His fee hasn’t officially dropped for the 2024 season but anecdotally they are willing to negotiate more than with some other fees. I think he is the best value (in relative terms) of their sons of Siyouni.

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12. Blackbeard €20,000 (20,000)- (2020 by No Nay Never ex Muirin by Born to Sea)

Verdict: Doubt he is a source of treasure
Beatles Lyric: “Where do they all belong”

Ran 8 times and won 6 times including a pair of Group 1’s in the Prix Morny and Middle Park. Noticeably quirky, he was odds against improving his record at three and was dispatched to stud. His dam Muirin is by a disappointing sire in Born to Sea but she was 4th in the Moyglare. Despite these reservations, he attracted 195 mares in 2023. Coolmore have 4 sons of No Nay Never on their books and you have to wonder if Ireland is repeating the mistakes of Australia. In 2019, Plusvital published research that showed a halving in the number of horses with stamina markers (TT horses) and a 70% increase in horses with C:C speed indicators. With the huge numbers of mares being bred to these speed sires these worrying trends are gathering momentum. As a temperamental sort from an unexceptional female line I wouldn’t be in a hurry to use him at his current fee.

Coolmore Fees 2023- Part One- The big guns reviewed

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2022 was a disappointing year overall for Coolmore’s Irish sires. No Nay Never did well, but no other sire really enhanced his reputation. Coolmore lost their 30 year grip on the UK/Irish sires championship in 2021 and they seem unlikely to reclaim that championship anytime soon. Their best placings in the sires table were the irreplaceable Galileo in 4th and No Nay Never in 10th.

Ballydoyle was light on top three year old colts so the only addition to the roster was the temperamental two year old Bluebeard. The roster saw the departure of Highland Reel (to Japan) and Rock of Gibraltar (to horsey heaven) leaving a roster of 21 sires for next year. In terms of pricing, they were conservative with only minor tweaks. The best mares in Europe are now earmarked for Frankel/Dubawi/Sea the Stars/Siyouni rather than Coolmore sires, but Coolmore is still the destination of choice for a significant proportion of the Irish and UK broodmare band. .

Below is my assessment of their published fees for 2023, starting with the priciest sires.

Stallion 2023 fee (2022 fee)

1. No Nay Never €175,000 (€125,000) (2011 Scat Daddy ex Cat’s Eye Witness by Elusive Quality)

Verdict: Had a very good year but he is no Danzig

No Nay Never (NNN) was the real bright spot of the year for Coolmore. A stellar crop of two year olds conceived at €100k included three Group 1 winners in Little Big Bear, Blackbeard and Meditate and Group 2 winners in Aesop’s Fables and Trillium. The four year old Alcohol Free added the July Cup to her haul, so his offspring can also train on. MV Magnier was reported as saying his father was comparing NNN with Danzig. NNN is now 6% stakes winners to foals of racing age (45 stakes winners from 809 foals of racing age), a figure which will improve in time. In an era of much smaller books, Danzig sired 198 stakes winners from 1099 foals (18%) and almost 50 Grp 1 winners. No Nay Never has to date sired 7 Grp 1 winners so in truth the comparison is very much a case of wishful thinking. A closer comparison is probably Danzig’s son War Front (11% stakes winners) who also rose from a modest opening fee to the top ranks of sires.

I previously wrote that to justify his six figure fee he needed to produce 2-3 Group 1 winners each year. He succeeded admirably in that regard this year. He covered a book of 178 mares this year and 183 mares last year so he won’t be short of well bred representatives on the track in the coming years. Commercially he remains in the high risk category. Despite his results on the track, his yearling median this year was €153k- from a 2020 covering fee of €175k. Sprinters/two year olds are simply never going to attract the same blockbuster yearling prices as elite middle distance sires. Coolmore will be hoping that Little Big Bear will train on to become a Guineas winner as he will need to start producing classic milers to alter the perception of him as a two year old/sprinter sire. No Nay Never is going to be a big player for Coolmore/Balldoyle in the coming years but despite his qualities he is not attractively priced for outside breeders.

2. Wootton Bassett €150,000 (€150,000) (2008 Iffraaj ex Balladonia by Primo Dominie)

Verdict: Little upside at that price

Coolmore’s faith in No Nay Never was repaid on the track this season. Big money signing Wootton Bassett still has to deliver for them but he is being given huge support.

His first 8 crops led to 488 foals. In contrast, he has covered 249 mares in 2022 and 244 mares in 2021. It must have been a relief for Coolmore to see Al Riffa win the National Stakes as his dam is by Galileo and he has covered an abundance of Galileo mares in the past seasons. On the track, the supporting cast wasn’t that exciting with Group/Grade 2’s for Chindit and Speak of the Devil the best of them. His yearling median in 2022 was €150,000 which was a good out-turn for a crop conceived at €40,000. At €150,000 he will need to deliver 2-3 new Group 1 winners each year and produce classic contenders. He may well do so but I wouldn’t be rushing to invest at this stage as he is priced as if he has already delivered on the potential shown by his earlier crops.

3. St Mark’s Basilica €65,000 (65,000) (2018 Siyouni ex Cabaret by Galileo)

Verdict: a well credentialed but expensive gamble

Kept at the same fee for his second season after attracting 176 mares this year. He has lots to recommend him as a top class racehorse at two and three who won a Dewhurst, two French classics and a high quality renewal of the Irish Champion Stakes (albeit the stewards should have reversed the placings with Tarnawa in that race). He was a 1.3 million Guineas yearling and he is a half brother to Magna Grecia . With a strong book of mares he will be given every chance of succeeding but history tells us that most sires don’t live up to expectations. On the basis of historical probability rather than a reservation about his individual merits I would rate him as too risky at that price.

4. Camelot €60,000 (€75,000)- (2009 by Montjeu ex Tarfah by Kingmambo)

Verdict: Flatters to Deceive

There was a lot of expectation around Luxembourg this year but he had mixed year. He was 3rd in a Guineas, missed the Derby, won the Irish Champion Stakes and finished 7th in the Arc. He remains in training to embellish his record before presumably retiring to Coolmore for the 2024 season. In contrast Sammarco won the two German group 1’s with little fanfare. Waterville won a Ceaserwitch which wasn’t the plan early in the season when he was touted as a classic contender. That for me is the story of Camelot, he flatters to deceive a little- with horses like Sir Dragonet, Santa Barbara, Pink Dogwood and English King all disappointing in classics when fancied . His yearling median somehow reached €160,000 in 2021 before dropping back to €90,000 this year. I suspect the market may continue to cool on him in the coming years and he makes little commercial appeal at that price.

5. Starspangledbanner €50,000 (€35,000) (2006 Choisir ex Gold Anthem by Made of Gold

Verdict: Pricey given his black type percentages

His fee has risen steadily over the past five seasons from €15,000 in 2018 to a heady €50,000 next year. He has gone from being a value sire to an overpriced sire. He made his name as good sire of sprinters/two year olds but surprisingly his two Group 1 winners in 2022, Aristia and State of Rest both triumphed over 10 furlongs and he has just had a third group 1 winner in the Hong Kong Mile victor California Spangle. His fertility has improved markedly from his early days but his percentages have gone in reverse. He is now showing 25 Stakes winners from 722 foals of racing age, a rather modest 3%. His yearling median in 2022 was just over €60,000 which was a good return from a €22,500. However I’m not sure he will rise much further. He is a sire I liked and his recent Grp 1 winners are changing perceptions of him but the price increases were overdone.

6. Saxon Warrior €35,000 (€20,000) (2015 Deep Impact ex Maybe by Galileo)

Verdict: Interesting but overpriced

Victoria Road got up on the line to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf by a nose. I suspect if the photo finish had gone the other way, Saxon Warrior would be listed at 25k for next year and that would be a more realistic fee for him. He had three stakes winners with Grp 3 winners Moon Ray and Lumiere Rock joining Victoria Road. He also sired Gan Teorainn who was runner up in the Prix Marcel Boussac and was later sold for a cool million. In total he had 22 first crop winners which was a decent outcome given that his progeny can be expected to do better at three. His yearling median was just over €40k so the market wasn’t entirely bowled over by his first crop. He was an admirable horse winning a Guineas and Racing Post Trophy and losing out narrowly to Roaring Lion over 10 furlongs. His pedigree is top notch being a son of Deep Impact and his dam was a Moyglare winner so there is plenty to like about him but the price increase was overdone.

7. Churchill €30,000 (€25,000)- (2014 by Galileo ex Meow by Storm Cat)

Verdict: A poor sire despite Vadeni

Vadeni showed that Churchill can sire a really top horse. His two year olds included Prix Marcel Boussac winner Blue Rose Cen and Royal Lodge winner The Foxes. Yet despite those successes Churchill is not a good sire. He has covered huge books throughout his career – 211 mares in 2018, 214 mares in 2019, 250 mares in 2020, 198 in 2021 and 108 in 2022. His yearling median dipped slightly to €50,000 so the market hasn’t abandoned him yet. However his overall record (8 stakes winners and 96 winners) is far from impressive and for me he is one to avoid.

8. Sottsass €25,000 (25,000) (2016 Siyouni ex Starlet’s Sister by Galileo)

Verdict: Fairly Priced

Sottsass race record of an Arc, Prix Ganay and French Derby is impressive. His pedigree is impressive with the dam also producing 7 time Gr. 1 winner Sistercharlie and Gr. 1 placed My Sister Nat. St Mark’s Basilica is the more high profile son of Siyouni but at their respective prices Sottsass is better value.

9. Australia €25,000 (€35,000)- (2011 by Galileo ex Ouija Board by Cape Cross)
Verdict: Slightly overpriced (should be €20,000)

Had a new Grp 1 winner in Ocean Road and Nachtrose won the Oaks D’Italia. However, overall it was an underwhelming year on the track. At this stage in his career we have a fair idea of the true merit of Australia. He is a decent sire of 5% stakes winners but he has his limitations. He has covered 173 mares in 2022 and 162 in 2021 with many of these reportedly foal shares. His yearling median dropped back to €33k this year and I suspect he will struggle to regain the love of the commercial market.

10. Blackbeard €25,000 (na)- (2020 by No Nay Never ex Muirin by Born to Sea)
Verdict: Overpriced– Ten Sovereigns is better relative value

Ran 8 times and won 6 times including a pair of Group 1’s in the Prix Morny and Middle Park. He was an early two year old, debuting in April, winning a Listed race in early May and a Group 3 later that month. His dam Muirin won at two and was 4th in the Moyglare but never won again in five later career starts. Blackbeard cost 270,000 guineas as foal and following his exploits his sister cost an eye popping €2.6 million as a yearling. Blackbeard was also notably quirky (see video of his antics below https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JirvdmHzh84&t=9s) and it was hard to envision him improving his record at three. The fact that Little Big Bear was kept in training and Blackbeard retired is a good indicator of who they perceive as being the better horse/better prospect. Taking everything into account, I think he is well overpriced. If you really want to use a son of No Nay Never at Coolmore then Ten Sovereigns is standing at €17,500 and he was both a better horse than Blackbeard and he trained on at three.


140-A Useful Restriction?A Straw in the Wind?

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At a time when people are complaining about lockdowns and restrictions, the Jockey Club of North America has introduced what could be an intelligent and helpful restriction. Limiting book sizes to 140 for stallions born during or after 2020 is a first step in regulating the market. It is surprising that the ultra-capitalist USA has intervened in the free market, whereas European countries don’t act. US racing is no exemplar having failed utterly to deal with its drug problem and it has serious welfare issues but this is welcome example of intelligent leadership coming from Trump’s America. Alternatively, maybe there is a secondary motive that is in line with Trump’s protectionist policies. It might not be a coincidence that ‘foreign’ owned Coolmore is likely to be most impacted by this change…..

Gradual Introduction:

The new rules only apply to foals born in 2020. That means it is unlikely to affect any new stallions until the 2024 breeding season.

To see its potential impact, I looked at the 2019 covering figures in the US. IN 2019, 46 sires in the US covered 140 or more mares (see table at end of this article) . If the 140 mare limit was imposed on all of those stallions then 1397 mares would have gone to alternative stallions . However, under the terms of the phased introduction it would have applied to just 4 stallions (Justify, Mendellsohn, Bolt d’Oro and Good Magic) who collectively covered 322 mares over the cap. If the logic is to help improve diversity in the gene pool, then it’s not going to transform the landscape dramatically. It is a small step in the right direction and the impact will increase over time.

Implications for Stallion Values

A decrease from 252 to 140 equates to a 44% reduction in mares covered for Justify and Mendellsohn. In absolute terms, had the cap been in force there would have been a notional loss of over $20 million to Coolmore (assuming these mares didn’t switch to alternative Coolmore stallions). Justify was standing for $150000, and based on 112 mares this equates to $16.8 million and for Mendelssohn at $35000 the loss would have been $3.9 million. The excess over the cap equates to $1.8 million for Bolt D’Oro (74 mares at €25000) and €840000 for Good Magic (24 @$35000).

It doesn’t automatically follow that their values or purchase prices would have dropped by 44%. They can still shuttle to the Southern Hemisphere where their earning potential will not be impacted. Stallions are typically less popular after their first season so the impact will be reduced in those years. Most stallions can only dream of attracting more than 140 mares so for the majority of stallions it will have no implications.

Coolmore’s Modus Operandi

In the past Coolmore could outbid rivals for stallions but still recoup the higher price through greater utilisation of those stallions (ie more mares covered). Coolmore usually recoup the majority of their investment in the initial years before the first runners arrive.

They can still outbid rivals but the ‘stack ’em high’ advantage will be gone, at least in the US (shuttle coverings won’t be impacted). The phased introduction of the cap, lessens the threat to Coolmore and they have time to adjust their purchasing decisions and pricing strategies for new recruits. I suspect, they would prefer if the cap wasn’t introduced but they will adapt to it’s introduction.

Implication for Genetic Diversity

The stated reason for the rule is to improve genetic diversity and to avoid the narrowing of bloodlines that we have witnessed in recent decades.

I think quotas are to be welcomed and the intervention is warranted. For 200 years, the unwritten cap on stallion books was 40 mares. It is only since the 1980’s that we have seen the relentless rise in what is considered acceptable. Given the multiple variables at play it is hard to definitively prove that larger books have damaged the soundness of the breed, as measured by starts per runner.

However, the lack of definitive proof doesn’t mean that nothing should be done. It is reasonable to suggest that a more prudent and precautionary approach should have been adopted. To me it makes sense to avoid situations whereby 1% of all US mares are bred to a single unproven stallion (as was the case with both Justify and Mendellsohn).

The Situation in Europe

The European regulatory environment is complicated by differing national laws and possible the need to comply with EU competition law. Changes could be implemented by industry agreement and self-regulation. Hopefully this US initiative may prompt debate and action on the issue.

In the National Hunt sphere there are some ridiculous book sizes, particularly amongst unproven sons of Galileo (see http://www.montjeu.com/1122/ for a full discussion on that issue). Ireland’s National Hunt breeding environment would benefit most from book size restrictions.

Conclusion

If this change was in effect in 2019 only 322 mares out of c.20,000 would have been redirected to other stallions. It is a modest initial intervention but a significant ideological shift and an acknowledgment that the market isn’t always right. It will hopefully spur other countries to act and follow the US example…

List of stallions covering more than 140 mares in 2019

StallionMares BredMares over capYear born
Justify2521122015
Mendelssohn2521122015
Into Mischief2411012005
Uncle Mo2411012008
Goldencents239992010
Bolt d’Oro214742015
Munnings202622006
Practical Joke200602014
Sharp Azteca195552013
Cross Traffic188482009
Klimt187472014
American Pharoah178382012
Mor Spirit176362013
Cloud Computing171312014
Kantharos171312008
Violence171312010
West Coast168282014
Accelerate167272013
Gun Runner166262013
Always Dreaming165252014
Good Magic164242015
Good Samaritan162222014
Candy Ride (ARG)161211999
Collected156162013
Nyquist156162013
Hard Spun155152004
Union Rags155152009
Quality Road154142006
Tapwrit154142014
Twirling Candy154142007
Cairo Prince152122011
Arrogate14992013
Girvin14992014
Kitten’s Joy14992001
Stay Thirsty14772008
Street Sense14772004
Uncaptured14772010
City of Light14662014
Frosted14442012
Mo Town14442014
California Chrome14332011
Mastery14332014
Speightstown14221998




Total74171397

The A-Z (Australia-Zoffany) of Coolmore’s 2016 Stud Fees..

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This is the time of year in which studs announce their 2016 fees. In the coming weeks, I will consider the prices announced by the major operators and whether they match my idea of value. In the words of Warren Buffett “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get”. I will begin with Europe’s dominant player, Coolmore.

Stallion 2016 fee (2015 fee)
Australia €50,000 (€50,000)- (2011 by Galileo ex Ouija Board by Cape Cross)
Verdict: I thought that there might have been a slight reduction in his second year but obviously they are confident demand will remain strong. Australia has everything you would want in a prospective stallion being a superior Derby winner out of an outstanding Oaks winner so difficult to really quibble with his fee.

Camelot €25,000 (€25,000)- (2009 by Montjeu ex Tarfah by Kingmambo)

Verdict: His reputation when he went to stud was a long way removed from what it was for most of his racing career. He was narrowly denied the honour of being the first triple crown winner since Nijinsky by Encke a horse who was subsequently caught up in the Mahmood Al Zarooni steroid scandal.  On that basis you could argue that he represents good value, however to date Montjeu’s sons are more miss than hit, and he seems fully priced.

Canford Cliffs €17,500 (€12,500) (2007- Tagula ex Mrs Marsh by Marju)

Verdict: A good season with his first two years olds has seen him deliver plenty of winners (30 to date) and a good sprinkling of quality as well with two group winners in Painted Cliffs and Most Beautiful and a Listed winner in Aktoria. His sales results were unexceptional to date and I’m not sure his runners have done enough on the track to justify the increase.

Excelebration €15,000 (€17,500): (2008 Exceed and Excel ex Sun Shower by Indian Ridge)

Verdict: . A superb miler who was unfortunate to live in the era of Frankel. Excelebration’s fee has dropped slightly each year and his sales medians are unremarkable. Will have his first runners in 2016 so using him involves a punt on their likely performance.

Fastnet Rock Private (did not shuttle) (2001 Danehill ex Piccadilly Circus by Royal Academy)

Verdict: Had a good season with three Group 1 winners in Qualify, Fascinating Rock and Diamondsandrubies and a promising two year old in Turret Rocks. To me his overall European record is still modest given the quality of mares he covered in his first few seasons  His last reported European fee was €30000 in 2011 and despite his recovery this season I wouldn’t pay more than half that for him and I doubt very much Coolmore would trade at anything like that price.

Footstepsinthesand €10,000 (€10,000) (2002 Giant’s Causeway ex Glatisant by Rainbow Quest)

Verdict: Has stood at this level for a number of years. Commercially is facing a decline in popularity as new kids arrive on the block.  A reasonable stallion but wouldn’t be high on a wish list of stallions at that price.

Galileo Private Private (1998 Sadler’s Wells ex Urban Sea by Miswaki)

Verdict: For much of the season it seemed he was going to be usurped by Dubawi in the race for the title of European champion sire. However in the end it proved another remarkable year for Galileo who sired an incredible 10 Group or Grade 1 winners. His fee is rumoured to be around the 300k mark and although you could never say that such a fee represents a bargain it can certainly be justified.

Gleneagles €60,000 NEW (2012 Galileo ex You’resothrilling by Storm Cat).

Verdict: A dual guineas winner, first past the post in 5 Group 1’s and out of a full sister to Giant’s Causeway- what is there not to like? Well firstly his career ended in two underwhelming performances in the QE2 at Ascot and in an overly optimistic attempt at the Breeders Cup Classic. In addition the failure to run him from June to October using the ground as an excuse gave rise to a suspicion that he wasn’t quite the superstar his connections had described him as being.  To me his fee is too rich and I would have expected at most a 45k fee. Given the choice of unproven stallion sons of Galileo, I’d opt for Australia over Gleneagles at their respective prices.

Henrythenavigator €7,500 (€15,000) (2005 Kingmambo ex Sequoyah by Sadler’s Wells)

Verdict: A better horse than Gleneagles but his fee has come down from an initial $65000 (when he stood at Ashford) to next year’s €7,500.  The reason for the decline is simply the lack of sufficient quality offspring (c. 1% stakes winners!). His two year olds of 2016 will have been conceived from a 30k covering fee so he might show a small rebound but all aspects of his career to date show him to be a poor stallion that you could not recommend.

Holy Roman Emperor €17,500 (€20,000) (2004 Danehill ex L’On Vite by Secretariat)

Verdict: Had a very quiet year on the track in Europe and is proving to be an inconsistent sire. His fee deserved a bigger reduction than the one he received. His yearling averages held up well in 2015 but the market may not be so forgiving if 2016 does not prove more rewarding on the track.

Ivawood €9,000 NEW (2012 Zebedee ex Keenes Royale by Red Ransom)

Verdict: Really! Zebedee has had his fee reduced to €8000 and although this guy was classic placed and was the most expensive Zebedee yearling, his overall record shows that he never won after July of his two year old days and was beaten in his final 7 runs. His fellow Coolmore stallions should be insulted by his presence on the roster 🙂

Kingston Hill €6,000 NEW (2011 Mastercraftsman ex Audacieuse by Rainbow Quest)

Verdict: Unfortunate in that injury kept him off the track in 2015. Winner of the Racingpost Trophy at two, runner up to Australia in the Derby, winner of the St Leger and a close up fourth to Treve in the Arc. Ironically if he hadn’t won the St Leger his fee would probably be higher. His overall pedigree is unexceptional but given his quality as a racehorse I wouldn’t quibble with his fee.
Mastercraftsman €35,000 (€40,000) (2006 Danehill Dancer ex Starlight Dreams by Black Tie Affair)

Verdict: A stellar first crop saw him provide two classic winners in 2015 in Kingston Hill and The Grey Gatsby.  Amazing Maria become the third Group 1 winner to emerge from that crop when she notched a Group 1 double in 2016. Nothing comparable emerged from his subsequent crops to reach the track which explains the reduction in fee. Still has a few crops conceived at much lower fees to work their way through the system so might be quiet for a period, before his better bred crops emerge.

Most Improved €4,000 (€5,000) (2009 Lawman ex Tonnara by Linamix)

Verdict:  Although he won a St James Palace Stakes this guy must be a hard sell even for the Coolmore marketing team. A modest fee for a modest performer.

No Nay Never €17,500 (€20,000) (2011 Scat Daddy ex Cat’s Eye Witness by Elusive Quality)

Verdict: A big powerful precocious two year old who dominated his contemporaries in the Norfolk Stakes and the Prix Morny. To be fair he also showed useful form at three including when runner up in a Breeders Cup Sprint Turf. His sire Scat Daddy had a very good year in 2015 and his fee has been hiked from $35000 to $100000. Regardless its a no nay never from me at the quoted fee.
Pour Moi €10,000 (€12,500) (2008 Montjeu ex Gwynn by Darshaan)

Verdict: Interesting at the price but still not quite cheap enough to represent value. The expectation was that he was not going to sire two year olds so it was a bonus that he sired a nice Listed winner in Only Mine, however it is a decision for the brave to invest for next year.

Power €8,000 (€8,000) (2009 Oasis Dream ex Frappe by Inchinor)

Verdict:
Attractively priced for a Group 1 winning two year old who went on to win an Irish 2000 Guineas and comes from a strong family. I’d certainly use him over Ivawood.

Requinto €5,000 (€4,000) (Dansili ex Damson by Entrepreneur)

Verdict: Was an unusual Dansili in being so speedy and precocious (just like his dam). I have a prejudice against atypical sons of stallions so that puts me off him and I’m not sure what he did to justify an increase in fee for his fourth season

.Rip Van Winkle €12,500 (€25,000) (2006 Galileo ex Looking Brill by Stravinsky)

Verdict: Interestingly he remains the second highest rated son of Galileo after Frankel. Had a Group 1 winner in his first crop with Dick Whittington but had a very quiet year in 2015. Seems destined for export unless things change quickly in 2016.
Rock Of Gibraltar €10,000 (€12,500) (1999 Danehill ex Offshore Boom by Be My Guest)

Verdict: Overall record is modest given the opportunities he received. Has had his moments as a sire but not enough to still warrant a 10k fee.

Ruler Of The World €10,000 (€15,000) (2010 Galileo ex Love Me True by Kingmambo)

Verdict: A beautifully bred Derby winner who finished close up in a Champion Stakes. Being a half brother to the now South African based Duke of Marmalade is also starting to look like a positive after Duke of Marmalade had a good season in Europe. Obviously his merit is still unknown but he is competitively priced given his pedigree and performance.

So You Think €12,500 (€12,500) (High Chapparal ex Triassic by Tights)

Verdict: A big beast of a horse but hard to argue with 10 Group 1’s between Europe and Australia. I didn’t think much of High Chaparral as a sire and the Australian side of his pedigree will be unfamiliar to many here but did enough as a racehorse to justify his fee at least until his runners hit the track.

Starspangledbanner €15,000 (25,000)  (2006 Choisir ex Gold Anthem by Made of Gold

Verdict: A quality sprinter on two continents and a very good first crop of two year olds. Didn’t have a similar impact with his current two year olds and some of the initial fanfare has faded. Also suffers from fertility issues so that will dissuade some mare owners but his fee probably reflects the additional risks.

War Command €15,000 (€15,000) (War Front ex Wandering Star by Red Ransom)

Verdict: An impressive Coventry winner and subsequent Dewhurst winner but one who disappointed at three. The War Front bandwagon rolls on, so commercially you can see how he would appeal.
Zoffany €45,000 (€12,500) (2008 Dansili ex Tyranny by Machiavellian)

Verdict: Probably surprised even his biggest supporters at Coolmore when he landed a Royal Ascot treble with Waterloo Bridge, Washington DC and Illuminate. Champion first season sire and plenty of runners who look like they will train on including Royal Lodge winner Foundation . Its a huge fee increase but you can’t say he didn’t deserve it.

Shout It Out- we need Sunday Silence…

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The two richest turf races on Dubai World Cup night were won by Just A Way (Heart’s Cry ex Sibyl by Wild Again) and Gentildonna (Deep Impact ex Donna Blini by Bertolini). Both Heart’s Cry and Deep Impact are sons of Sunday Silence whose dominance in Japan matched Sadler’s Wells in Europe and their sons Deep Impact and Galileo are now equally pre-eminent.

European breeding is urgently in need of some new options and it lacks even the limited diversity available in the US. Crossing and recrossing Sadler’s Well and Danehill surely can’t go on forever.
We have quickly seen the decline of sire lines such as Sharpen Up, Ahonoora, Busted and Blushing Groom. Nijinsky as an atypical Northern Dancer was to be welcomed but is almost gone. The bright spot that was the total outcross Monsun is perhaps likely to end up as a National Hunt influence as his sons are pushed into that space. Mill Reef’s influence is on the wane and the Roberto line is barely hanging on.
It would be nice to see some new options emerge and to me the failure of any major European stud to go all out for a top representative of the Sunday Silence line is surprising. Vita Rosa spent had a year at Lanwades without much support or success but Divine Light was a lesser son of Sunday Silence who still sired a classic winner in Natagora and Hat Trick sired Dabirisim before being moved to Kentucky. The Wildenstein’s sent their mare Bastet to be bred to Deep Impact and were rewarded with Beauty Parlour who won a French Guineas. Overall that is a good strike rate for the Sunday Silence line in Europe and it is not difficult to see a well credentialed sire backed by a major European stud making a major impact (a deep impact even 🙂 ) on the European scene.
Coolmore have done deals in Japan in the past (even Danehill spent a year there in 1996) and maybe they would consider swapping a top son of Galileo (how many do they need?) for a high class representative of the Sunday Silence line. Just a thought….

Can you have too much of a good thing?

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Frankel’s first foal was born on the 11th of January.  The dam Chrysanthemum was a Group 3 winner trained by David Wachman for Coolmore connections. In truth, in terms of racing performance and pedigree Chrysanthemum was no more than a middle ranking member of Frankel’s stellar first book of mares.

However what is far more interesting is the pedigree cross it represents.  We are by now, well used to seeing variants of the  Sadler’s Wells (and sons) by Danehill cross , the cross that reached its pinnacle with Frankel himself. It has proved hugely successful with Galileo alone having sired  8 Group 1 winners out of Danehill mares. Chrysanthemum is by Danehill Dancer out of a daughter of Sadler’s Wells and it begs the question can you have too much of a good thing?

Sadler’s Wells and Danehill are the giant names of European breeding in recent decades. Coolmore achieved considerable success with the likes of Horatio Nelson (Danehill ex Imagine), Peeping Fawn (Danehill ex Maryinsky and Chevalier (Danehill ex Legend Maker) bred on this cross.  Given the number of high class broodmares they possess with both names in the pedigree it is perhaps unsurprising that they are considering doubling up what has worked in the past.

They would have been encourage by the results to date for Teofilo (Galileo ex Speirbhean by Danehill) who is similarly bred to Frankel. Teofilo has made a good start to his stud career highlighted by Group 1 success for Parish Hall  (ex Halla Siamsa by Montjeu) and Irish Derby success  with Trading Leather who is out of a Sinndar mare and thus has another cross of Danzig as does Voleuse Des Coeurs (ex Vadorga by Grand Lodge). This new foal is just gone a little further in terms of duplication.

This foal will have Sadler’s Wells 3X3, and Danehill 3X3.  In the first 6 generations Northern Dancer’s name appears 5 times and he appears once more in the 7th generation. Given that Danehill features 2 crosses of Northern Dancer’s dam Natalma, her name appears 8 times in the pedigree! If this was  a human we would be appalled, even if it was a pedigree dog we would be concerned yet when it comes to our friends the thoroughbreds we just think it’s interesting!  As regards the question, whether you can have too much of a good thing,  we will obviously just have to wait until he finishes his racecourse career to answer that one…

Frankel's first foal
6 generation pedigree