Casting an Expert Eye over the Juddmonte Sires…

If you’ve waited with Bated Breath, for me to cast my Expert Eye over Frankel to check if he is now the King-Man of European stallions, well you are in for treat. This is no mirage or Oasis Dream, this is my review of the Juddmonte sire fees for 2022… ūüôā

1.Bated Breath ¬£15,000 (¬£12,500) (2007 Dansili ex Tantina by Distant View)

Verdict: Overpriced

He was unraced at two, a progressive handicapper at three, before coming into his own at four and five. He won the Group 2 Temple Stakes and was four times a runner up in Group 1’s. Dansili’s progeny having an average winning distance of 9.7f and his dam produced 9 furlong Group 1 winner and underrated sire Cityscape, but this fellow was a pure sprinter equally adept at 5 and 6 furlongs.

His record to date isn’t particularly exciting. He stood at ¬£8,000 for his first two seasons and has gradually crept upwards to reach a new peak of ¬£15,000 for 2022. A lot of his success is in the US with Gift List and Viadera both notching Grade 2’s in 2021 and Space Traveller being Grade 1 placed. In Europe, Sacred Bridge looked like a potential superstar for Ger Lyons but she flopped when favourite for the Cheveley Park . To date, despite 6 crops having run and mostly 3 figure crops, he has a solitary Group/Grade 1 winner in Viadera. His tally of 20 stakes winners from 619 foals of racing age is a modest 3%. There are better value options on both sides of the Irish sea….

2.Expert Eye ¬£10,000 (¬£12,500) (2015 Acclamation ex Exemplify by Dansili)

Verdict: Fairly Priced

Entering his fourth season at stud so he will have his first runners next year. He finished his career with a record that included wins in the Vintage Stakes at two, and a Jersey Stakes and a Breeders Cup mile at three. His final tally showed five wins and three places from 10 starts. His Breeders Cup mile wasn’t the best running of that contest and in truth, he was a little short of being a truly top miler (well beaten in the Guineas, 2nd in the Sussex to Lightning Spear and 3rd in the Moulin to Recoletos).

On the plus side, he comes from a typically deep Juddmonte family and Acclamation’s reputation as a sire of sires has grown again now that Mehmas has joined Dark Angel as a successful sire-son.

Using any fourth season sire is a risky strategy, but I think he is reasonably priced for the package on offer..

3.Frankel ¬£200,000 (¬£175,000) (2008 Galileo ex Kind by Danehill)

Verdict: Good Value

Had a stellar year in 2021, ending Galileo’s reign as champion sire in GB/Ireland and also topping the table in Europe. He was represented by Derby winners in Adayar and Hurricane Lane, top fillies in Alpinista and Snow Lantern, a classic prospect with Inspiral and enjoyed a season total of 8 Group 1 winners (2 of them in Australia). He now has 83 stakes winners from 791 foals of racing age. This equates to 10.4%, which is very impressive in the modern era.

The future looks even brighter for Frankel. Just as Galileo replaced Sadler’s Wells as the sire of choice for elite mares, Frankel is now poised to assume that role. Dubawi will be 20 next year and access to him is likely to be increasingly restricted. With longevity, Frankel looks well set to add a few more championships to his record. There are still many gaps in his cv (Guineas winners, top two year old colts etc ) but we can expect these to fill in over time. Noble Truth (by Kingman) finished 2nd in the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere to give rise to expectations that he will make his mark as a broodmare sire as well.

How to assess his fee? His yearling median was ‘only’ ¬£241,500 (Dubawi’s was ¬£446,250) but he is now entering a price point well beyond the typical commercial breeder. Given the year he enjoyed, I expected a bigger hike than ¬£25k. He may only be an option for the super-rich for whom price is less of a consideration but he is a relative bargain at the price…

4.Kingman ¬£150,000 (¬£150,000) (2011 Invincible Spirit ex Zenda by Zamindar)

Verdict: Fairly Priced…

Had a good year with 20 stakes winners. Palace Pier added 3 new UK Grp 1’s, Domestic Spending won two Grade 1’s in the US and Schnell Meister won a Grp 1 in Japan. In addition, he had 6 Grp 2 winners, 4 in the States, 1 in Japan and Kinross in the UK.

Kingman’s success to date has been based on his initial crops conceived at ¬£55k. There will be 149 two year olds bred at ¬£75k to run in 2022 and his ¬£150k crops will follow. Despite being a young sire, he will have 5 sons at stud in Europe next year (Palace Pier, Persian King, Calyx, Roseman and Headman).

Commercially, his yearling median dropped to £178,500 from £236k in 2020. That however is still a good return off a £75k cover. His percentage of black type winners is currently running at 9% (43 from 474 foals) and those figures deservedly place him amidst the elite European sires.

With the retirement of Palace Pier, he could do with a new star emerging in Europe. Kingman is not cheap at his current price, but it’s reasonable to assume that he will capitalise on his better and bigger books of mares (116 of the 178 mares he covered in 2020 were elite mares) and on that basis he is probably reasonably priced.

5.Oasis Dream ¬£20,000 (¬£20,000) (2000 Green Desert ex Hope by Dancing Brave)

Verdict: Good Value..

Now entering his 19th season at stud, the National Stakes & Dewhurst winner Native Trail showed he can still produce a top horse. The supporting cast was not as impressive but there were 3 other Group winners and a total of 8 stakes winners in the year.

He now has lifetime figures of 127 stakes winners from 1631 foals of racing age, which is a very respectable 8%. His yearling median was £69,300 off a covering fee of £30,000 which is also a healthy return.

He has also done respectably as a broodmare sire with 65 stakes winners produced by his daughters to date. He has a good sire son in Showcasing, along with his share of disappointments as well (Arcano, Morpheus, Naaqoos, Muharrar etc). He won’t be around forever and assuming his fertility remains strong, he represents very good value as a proven, reliable sire.

Final Word/Future of Juddmonte/What is it worth?

Khalid Abdullah died in January 2021 casting in doubt the future of the Juddmonte operation. In a statement, the family committed to continuing his legacy but there does not seem to be an obvious successor with the same interest as Prince Khalid. If there are any multi-billionaires looking to buy a seat at the very top table a lock, stock and barrel purchase of Juddmonte would be an excellent place to start. There are plenty of precedents for such moves. In 2008 Sheikh Mohammed paid $460 million for the Inghams operations in Australia and the Aga Khan purchased the Dupr√©, Boussac and Lagard√©re bloodstock interests. Juddmonte would be a step up again for any purchaser. It’s interesting to speculate on what it might cost. The broodmare band comprises some 200 mares including the likes of Enable. If we took an average mare value of ¬£400k that would equate to ¬£80 million (a snip). Valuing the stallions is obviously tricky but if we took 500 times their combined stud fees we get a figure of around ¬£200 million with almost all of that accounted for by Frankel and Kingman. This will have to be reduced if there are substantial breeding rights held by third parties. Add in another ¬£100 million or so for the land, yearlings and racing stock and there is a deal to be done for little more than the cost of a struggling Premier League club such as Newcastle… Someone should go for it…..

Firm Conclusions about Royal Ascot 2010

Royal Ascot 2010 provided enough material for a book, never mind a blog entry. Trying to summarise the five days racing comprising¬†30 races, 7 group 1’s and¬†7 group 2’s is difficult.¬†I went to the trouble of looking at the ninety placed horses over the meeting and comparing the results against the number of runners for each sire. The results are shown below and include a few surprises.

Sire Placed Horses Total Runners
Galileo  6  17
 Danehill Dancer  5  12
 Singspiel  5  9
 Rock of Gibraltar  4  7
 Cape Cross  3  9
 Choisir  3  4
 Dansili  3  7
 Exceed and Excel  3  11
 Oasis Dream  3  12
 Dubawi  2  6
 Green Desert  2  7
 Medicean  2  6
 Pivotal  2  8
 Silvano  2  2
     

 Galileo top of the charts but ..

Galileo emerges as top of the lists for placed horses¬†but even more so for runners.¬†I would not say he had a particularly¬†good Royal Ascot. Age of Aquarius (ex Clara Bow by Top Ville)ran a fine race in the Gold Cup (20 furlongs) and he was followed home by Purple Moon (ex Vanishing Prairie by Alysheba). Mikhail Glinka (ex Lady Karr by Mark of Esteem) just touched off Theology ( ex Biographie by Mtoto) in the 16 furlong Queens Vase.¬† These quality stayers are worthy of admiration but breeders are not paying c.175k for Galileo’s services in the hope of getting such a stayer. Galileo’s list of placed performers was completed by Gile na Greine (ex Scribonia by Danehill) who ran a fine second in the Coronation Stakes and Gallic Star (ex Oman Sea by Rahy) who was third in the Ribbesdale.

Danehill Dancer

Danehill Dancer had a good Royal Ascot. Lilly Langtry (ex Hoity Toity by Darshaan) was a good winner of the Coronation Stakes and he produced a promising two year old filly in Memory (ex Nausicaa by Diesis) who won the Albany stakes (Gr 3).  Quadrille (ex Fictitious by Machiavellian) was placed in a listed race and Imposing and Himalya were placed in handicaps. Better still his reputation as a sire of sires was significantly enhanced through the exploits of Choisir and another unfashionable sire son Monsieur Bond had a runner placed in the Queen Mary Stakes.

Singspiel still producing the goods

Singspiel also had five horses placed but from only nine runners. Singspiel’s offspring really love fast ground and he again emphasised why he is regarded as a fillies sire with a 1-2 in the Ribbesdale Stakes through Hibaayeb (ex Lady Zonda by Lion Cavern) and Eldalil (ex White House by Pursuit of Love). Recent reports indicate that his stud career may be at end due to declining fertility and if so he will be sorely missed as he was a great value stallion.

Rock of Gibraltar- yet to find his level

Rock of Gibraltar had a good Royal Ascot but his achievements tend to be slightly below the radar.¬† Society Rock (ex High Society by Key of Luck) was a fine second in the Golden Jubilee and Jacqueline Quest (ex Croquette Rouge by Croco Rouge) showed her Guineas run was no fluke by finishing third in the Coronation. In addition Rock Jock (ex Perfect Touch by Miswaki) was third in the Jersey Stakes (Gr 3) and London Stripe (ex Agenda by Sadler’s Wells) was second in the King George handicap. He is a decent stallion but his fee needs to come down from ‚ā¨22500 to around ‚ā¨15000.

Choisir – stallion of the week

What a difference a week makes. Like most people I had totally written off Choisir and the fact that he was no longer shuttling to the Northern hemisphere was a blessing. Now I’m not so certain anymore. Starspangledbanner (ex Gold Anthem by Made of Gold) was extremely impressive in the Golden Jubilee and in the Wokingham, Laddies Poker Two (ex Break of Day by Favorite Trick) showed herself to be much more than just a handicapper. For good measure the two year old Reckless Reward (ex Champagne Toni by Second Empire) was second in the Norfolk (Group 2) and his only other runner at the meeting, Stimulation (ex Damiana by Thatching) ran a career best when a close fourth in the Princess of Wales over 10 furlongs.

Dansili- almost the stallion of the week

With three winners Dansili had a fine week. Harbinger (ex Penang Pearl by Bering) was impressive in the Hardwicke Stakes and is capable of winning at Group 1 level. Strawberrydaiquiri (ex Strawberry Morn by Travelling Victor) was a game winner of the Windsor Forest Stakes and Dandino won the King George handicap.  With his better crops coming on stream his place at the top table is assured.

Oasis Dream and Dubawi- the run continues

It was also a good week for the winning producing machine that is Oasis Dream. Approve (ex Wyola by Sadler’s Wells) won the Nofolk Stakes(Gr. 2)¬† and Rainfall (ex Molomo by Barathea) won the Jersey Stakes. Similarly Dubawi showed his class and versatility.¬† Monterosso (ex Porto Roca by Barathea) continued his improvement and put himself in line for a tilt at the Irish Derby by winning the 12 furlong King Edward Stakes and Afsare (ex Jumaireyah by Fairy King) also showed improvement to win the listed Hampton Court Stakes.

Exceed and Excel

Exceed and Excel has built his reputation as a sire of two year olds. He didn’t do that reputation any harm by having three two year old’s placed in the course of the meeting.

Sireline of the week

This goes to Danehill. Four of his sons did well namely Danehill Dancer, Rock of Gibraltar, Exceed and Excel and Dansili. In addition Danehill Dancer’s son Choisir had a stellar week.

Disappointment of the week

We always keep an eye on Montjeu’s offspring. He had 12 runners over the week and none of them finished better than fifth. We can only blame the firm going.

No mystery here.

The¬†Prix Morny was expected to see Cranford Cliffs prove himself a superstar.¬† Instead he finished only third behind narrow winner Arcano.¬† Arcano is now unbeaten in three runs after winning a Newmarket maiden and the Group 2 July stakes also at Newmarket.¬† His win wasn’t visually impressive and more improvement will be required if he is to be considered a serious Guineas prospect for next year, although the time of the race set a new track record.

¬†We are still learning about Oasis Dream and Arcarno’s dam Tariysha was unraced. She is by the outstanding performer¬†Daylami who apart from Irish Derby winner Grey Swallow failed to live up to expectations at stud¬†and is now plying his trade in South Africa. It is early days to assess him as a broodmare sire but he is also broodmare sire this Summer of Group winner Summer Fete (by Pivotal).¬†

Arcarno’s granddam Tarwiya was a very useful filly for John Oxx at both¬†two and three years of age. At two she had eight runs (unusual for a¬†John Oxx inmate), she took five runs to break her maiden but by the end of the season her cv included wins in a Listed race, the Group¬†3 C.L Weld stakes and a second place in¬†the Group 1 Moyglare stakes.¬† She failed to win at three but did manage a very respectable third to Marling in the Irish 1000 Guineas. At stud she has produced a few winners but nothing of significance. One of her non-winning daughters Tahara is the dam of Godfrey Street who won a Flying Childers. Given the pedigree, a price of 90,000 Guineas seemed right when Arcano was offered at the Tattersalls October sales. It is a nice balanced pedigree with the only inbreeding being Mill Reef 4×4 and the Northern Dancer 4X5 that appears in Oasis Dream’s pedigree. Given the way Arcarno stayed on to win, connections might be tempted to step him up to 7 furlongs for the Dewhurst or alternatively they¬†may target the Middle Park which his sire won in 2002.

Arcano is the Spanish word for mystery but there is no mystery about the source of his talent. Oasis Dream has been the story of the Summer, producing a multitude of Group winners across a range of distances.¬† Twelve months ago it was clear that the best sire in Britain was Pivotal followed by Dansili- now Oasis Dream has overtaken Dansili and Pivotal’s position is under threat.¬† As the table below shows, since the start of July, Oasis Dream has sired the winners of 10 Group races. He has had three Group winning Two year olds (Misheer, Arcarno and Showcasing), Midday and Arcarno were Group 1 winners and Aqlaam and Main Aim were runners up in Group 1’s. It is a remarkable sequence of success and these results were produced from crop fees of ¬£25000 to ¬£30000.¬† Recession or not, I expect him to stand for c.¬£60k next year, he has large crops in the pipeline, he seems to work with all sorts of distaff lines and it seems that only premature death can stop him becoming a hugely significant European sire.

  

Date Horse age sex  Race and distance Dam (broodmare sire)
 23/08/09  Arcano 2 f  Prix Morny Gr 1 (6f)  Tariysha (Daylami)
 23/08/09  Lady Jane Digby 4 f Walther Jacobs Gr 3 (10f)  Scandalette (Niniski)
 19/08/09  Showcasing 2 f Gimcrack Gr 2 (6f)  Arabesque (Zafonic
 18/08/09 Monitor Closely 3 c Great Voltigeur Gr 2 (12f)  Independence (Selkirk)
 16/08/09  Mullein 4 f Flying Fillies Stakes lstd (6f)  Gipsy Moth (Efisio)
¬†16/08/09 ¬†Sri Putra¬†3 c Prix Guillaume D’Ornano¬†Gr¬†2 (10f) ¬†Wendylina (In the Wings)
 01/08/09  Midday 3 f Nassau Stakes Gr 1 (10f)  Midsummer (Kingmambo)
 11/07/09  Tuscan Evening 4 f Royal Heroine Mile  Gr 2(8f) The Faraway Tree (Suave Dancer)
 11/07/09  Aqlaam 3 c Summer Mile Gr 2 (8f)  Bourbonella (Rainbow Quest)
 09/07/09  Arcano 2 c July Stakes Gr 2 (6f)  Tariysha (Daylami)
 08/07/09  Misheer 2 f Cherry Hinton Stakes Gr 2 (6f)  All For Laura (Cadeaux Genereux)

 

ARCANO (IRE) 2007 c b

Oasis
Dream (GB) 2000
Green
Desert (USA) 1983
Danzig
(USA) 1977
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Pas
De Nom (USA) 1968
Foreign
Courier (USA) 1979
Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Courtly
Dee (USA) 1968
Hope
(IRE) 1991
Dancing
Brave (USA) 1983
Lyphard
(USA) 1969
Navajo
Princess (USA) 1974
Bahamian
(IRE) 1985
Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Sorbus
(IRE) 1975
Tariysha
(IRE) 2002
Daylami
(IRE) 1994
Doyoun
(IRE) 1985
Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Dumka
(FR) 1971
Daltawa
(IRE) 1989
Miswaki
(USA) 1978
Damana
(FR) 1981
Tarwiya
(IRE) 1989
Dominion
(GB) 1972
Derring-do
(GB) 1961
Picture
Palace (GB) 1961
Touraya
(IRE) 1984
Tap
On Wood (IRE) 1976
Takrana
(GB) 1977