Kildangan fees 2020 Part 2-Profitable to The Last Lion

Kildangan Stud 2020 fee (2019 fee)

  1. Profitable €12,000 (€12,000) 2012 Invincible Spirit ex Dani Ridge by Indian Ridge)

Verdict: Overpriced (slightly)

I don’t know whether to look on Profitable in a glass half full or glass half empty way. He won a Kings Stand Stakes at 4 and was runner up in the same race at 5 to Lady Aurelia. He ran 23 times over 4 seasons but 21 of those runs were over 5 furlongs and only twice did he venture as far as 6 furlongs. By the end of his three year old season, he was still to win beyond Listed class. Although he took time to mature, so did Invincible Spirit who was 5 before he won his Group 1. Profitable ‘only’ cost 95000 guineas as a yearling which was around average for yearling colts by Invincible Spirit in 2013. It is an unremarkable female line which had me googling some unfamiliar names such as Shelter Half, the sire of his grand-dam (turns out he was a Grade 3 winner who stood in Maryland and sired 18 stakes winners from 381 foals). There is no duplication in Profitable’s pedigree until the fifth generation and Northern Dancer only appears once on his page so that increases the range of suitable mares around these parts.

In defence of his fee, the sales results from his foals were strong with a median of 29,000 guineas. On the other hand, he is entering his third season when a reduction is customary and I would have expected €10,000 for 2020.

2. Raven’s Pass €10,000 (€10,000) (2005 Elusive Quality ex Ascutney by Lord at War)

Verdict: Overpriced

He retired at a fee of €40,000 and the fall to €10,000 tells its own story. On the face of it his percentages are surprisingly good with 7% stakes winners (33 from 485 foals of racing age). He had his first Group 1 winner in 2018 when Royal Marine won the Prix Jean Lagardare and had a second this year when Tower of London won a Group 1 sprint in Japan. However despite this mini-renaissance the market has lost patience with him and this year he had a yearling median of 12,750 guineas. He has had his chances with high quality books of mares and he didn’t deliver, so for me he is one to avoid.

3. Ribchester €20,000 (€25,000) (2013 Iffraaj ex Mujarah by Marju)

Verdict: Fair Price (for now)

An admirable racehorse he won or was placed in 14 of his 16 races. He won the Mill Reef at two, was placed in the Guineas, won the Jersey Stakes and Jacques Le Marois at three and won a Lockinge Queen Anne and Prix de Moulin at 4. He was top rated European miler for two seasons and he is the best son to date of Iffraaj.

He comes from a high class female line. His fifth dam is the legendary Fall Aspen, his third dam is Irish Guineas winner Mehthaaf. It’s a live family and the grand dam Tanaghum produced this years Group 3 winner Bangkok (by Australia). Iffraaj has sired a surprisingly good stallion in Wootton Bassett (sire of Alamanzor) and Ribchester’s first foals sold well with a median of 36,500 guineas. He is free of Sadler’s Wells, Danehill and Green Desert so he will suit lots of Irish mares. The odds are against any new stallion succeeding but for now he seems reasonably priced to me.

4. Shamardal Private (Private) (2002 Giant’s Causeway ex Helsinki by Machiavellian).

Verdict: That depends..

The star of the Kildangan operation who had an unbelievable season. To sire three unbeaten Group 1 winning two year old colts including the exceptional Pinatubo is remarkable and he did this from a juvenile crop of ‘just’ 82. The supporting cast included Blue Point and a French classic winner in Castle Lady.  Shamardal’s reputation has never been higher and he has also carved out a growing reputation as a broodmare sire and sire of sires via Lope De Vega. He has effectively been a private stallion for the Maktoum family for the past few seasons but did cover 16 outside mares in 2019. Kildangan can be very picky indeed about what outside mares they allow to Shamardal for 2020.  As regards a fee, we are in the realms of pure speculation but I would imagine it will be greater than Sea the Stars at €150,000 and probably exceed Frankel at £175,000 but fall short of Dubawi at £250,000 (if anyone hears, please let me know). Whether that represents value hardly matters for the uber-wealthy people involved at that level. 

5. Slade Power €7,500 (€7,500) (2009 Dutch Art ex Girl Power by Key of Luck)

Verdict: Overpriced

Most people would struggle to name anything that he has sired apart from Raffle Prize and that is because she is his only stakes winner from 176 foals of racing age. He stood for €20,000 in his first two seasons so he is clearly a big disappointment. His yearling median dropped to 8000 guineas in 2019. The only glimmer of hope is that he improved with age but I wouldn’t be holding out too much hope for a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of his offspring in the ring anytime soon. His record may improve (it can’t get much worse) but you would imagine that foreign shores beckon for him soon.

6. Teofilo €40,000 (€40,000) (2004 Galileo ex Speirbhean by Danehill)

Verdict: Overpriced

A reliable sire with 86 stakes winners (7%) from 1316 foals of racing age. Depended on older horses such as Cross Counter, Flight Risk and Exultant for most of his success in 2019.  There was no stakes winner amongst his 95 two year olds and he has smaller crops of 64 and 65 coming through ( presumably a consequence of his underwhelming fertility levels) .  His yearling sales median in 2019 was only 25,500 guineas . He is a good sire but at those sales levels you are better off buying his offspring than trying to breed to him…

7. The Last Lion €7,500 (€7,500) (2004 Choisir ex Mala Mala by Brief Truce)

Verdict: Overpriced

A tough precocious two year old who won the Brocklesby and then on his 10th start of the season won the Middle Park (incidentally beating Blue Point). He was then shipped off to stud in the hope that he would be the next Dark Angel who also retired after the Middle Park. He comes from a respectable female line that seems to throw up quality performers in most generations. Choisir has a good sire son to his name in Starspangledbanner and a less successful one (to date) in Olympic Glory. The Last Lion had a solid yearling median of 21,000 guineas in 2019. Using him in 2020 (his fourth season) may prove inspired but it is for gamblers only and the odds don’t look particularly attractive to me.

Kildangan 2020 fees reviewed: Why Blue Point is overpriced and other thoughts-Part 1 Belardo to Night of Thunder

Darley stands 16 stallions in Kildangan for 2020. It has a preponderance of sprinters/milers with only Teofilo being a noted middle distance sire. Either by accident of design, Darley’s elite middle distance sires (Dubawi, Golden Horn and New Approach) are homed in Dalham where they don’t compete head on with Coolmore’s array of middle distance sires. In this article, I gave a frank review of 9 sires on its Irish roster and will review the remainder over the Christmas break.

Kildangan Stud 2020 fee (2019 fee)

1.Belardo €10,000 (€10,000) 2012 Lope De Vega ex Danaskaya by Danehill)

Verdict: Fairly Priced

A Dewhurst winning son of Lope De Vega, he was second in the QE2 at three and won the Lockinge at four. That makes him sound very exciting but he actually only won five of his 16 starts and he seemed to lose his way at three, failing to win in 7 starts. His dam Danaskaya is listed as a Champion Irish two year old, but that honour was rather cheaply won and her best performances were placed efforts in the Cheveley Park and Lowther Stakes. It is a useful rather than exceptional female line.

Commercially, the markets didn’t seem in love with his first yearlings. The median was 20,000 guineas which is less than breeders would have expected off an initial €15,000 fee. At €10,000 he gives low cost access to a son of Lope De Vega, he was a Group 1 winning two year old and he compares well with Phoenix of Spain (by Lope de Vega ex Lucky Clio by Key of Luck) who will commence in the Irish National Stud for €15,000.

2. Blue Point €45,000 (€na) (2014 Shamardal ex Scarlett Rose by Royal Applause)

Verdict: Overpriced

There was a fair bit of speculation about Blue Point’s likely fee. His retirement with ‘nothing to prove’ was announced after Royal Ascot. Had Blue Point’s fee been announced in July, I suspect it would have been 25-30k. The arrival of Pinatubo, Earthlight and Victor Ludorum moved Shamardal’s reputation to a whole new level. Of his sire sons, Lope de Vega continues to climb the ranks, so if ever there was a good time to launch a son of Shamardal at stud it is now.

Blue Point was magnificent this year winning his five starts. These included 3 races at Meydan and then a Royal Ascot double in the Kings Stand over 5 furlongs and the Golden Jubilee over 6 furlongs. He has always been high class, winning a Gimcrack at 2, two Group races at three and the Kings Stand at 4. He ran twenty times, winning eleven and placed 6 times, so he was durable as well as classy. His dams pedigree is about speed. Scarlett Rose produced a Railway Stakes winner in Formosina, the second dam produced the tough and durable Tumbleweed Ridge but it’s not a particularly classy female line.

So why do I think he is overpriced?

Blue Point’s fee compares unfavourably with Caravaggio. Caravaggio was a better two year old, beat Blue Point in the Commonwealth Cup, is by an equally fashionable sire in Scat Daddy. Caravaggio has a slightly stronger distaff line yet he stands for 40k (and I think that is overpriced).

Blue Point was best at 5 and didn’t win his first Group 1 until he was four. Who is looking to breed four and five year olds? If you want a recent reminder of outstanding 5 year old sprinters failing at stud, check out stud mate Slade Power 🙂 Blue Point is an atypical Shamardal in terms of his distance preference and his distaff line is not top class. He may well succeed but there are just too many caveats for my liking to justify €45k…

3. Buratino €5,000 (€5000) (Exceed and Excel ex Bergamask by Kingmambo)

Verdict: Overpriced.

It’s small money but I think he is slightly overpriced given the risk/reward ratio. This is a sire heading into his fourth season with an initial yearling median of 6,000 guineas. Buratino was a precocious two year old who made his debut in March. When he won the Coventry in June from Air Force Blue it was his 6th race! Air Force Blue reversed the placings in the Phoenix Stakes but Buratino ran another fine race when only beaten half a length in the Middle Park. His subsequent three year old career was disappointing. As a son of Exceed and Excel, he can be expected to deliver early speedy types and his third dam Mira Adonde produced a rags to riches sire in Danehill Dancer. A few cheaper sons of Exceed and Excel have done well including Bungle intheJungle, Kuroshio and Sidestep and he may join their ranks, but I thought they would have dropped him to €4,000.

4. Dawn Approach €10,000 (€15,000) (2010 New Approach ex Hymn of Dawn by Phone Trick)

Verdict: Overpriced

He stood at €35,000 for his first three seasons, so his 2020 fee tells you that he hasn’t lived up to expectations. He was a champion two year old, a Guineas winner who won four Group 1’s but it’s his stud record that matters- and his stud record isn’t impressive. His winners to foals of racing age percentage is only 22% (120 from 544) and he is on 2% stakes winner to foals of racing age. He can sire a top horse but he is something of a ‘nearly sire’. Madhmoon is top class, having nearly won the Derby. Musis Amica nearly won the Prix de Diane and Mary Tudor was third in an Irish Oaks. Dawn Approach has yet to sire a Group 1 winner and only Madhmoon has won at Group 2 level. Commercially, he is dead in the water and he had a yearling median of 8500 guineas in 2019. I actually think there is good value in buying his yearlings at those sort of prices but you couldn’t advise a commercial breeder to pay €10k for next season.

5. Exceed And Excel €40,000 (€50,000) (2000 Danehill ex Patrona by Lomond)

Verdict: Overpriced

To start with the positives, Exceed and Excel is a successful stallion in two hemispheres, a real two year old sire, commercially popular and now achieving success as a broodmare sire and sire of sires. He had a very good year in Australia but was much quieter in Europe. This saw his yearling median dipped from 80000 in 2018 to 52000 guineas in 2019. At this stage, we know Exceed and Excel is a good sire with 164 (7%) stakes winners, but I don’t think his Northern Hemisphere results have justified his lofty fee. He still only has three Group 1 winners (Excelebration, Margot Did and Outstrip) to his name. There are better sires out there for the money and the market may be falling out of love with him….

6. Fast Company €12,000 (€12,000) (2005 Danehill Dancer ex Sheezalady by Zafonic)

Verdict: Overpriced

Was brought back to Kildangan for the 2017 after the classic success of Jetsetting and a Group 2 win for Devonshire in 2016. There was nothing comparable in 2019, with his top performer being the 6 year old Safe Voyage who won a Group 3 and finishing third in the QE2.

Fast Company had respectable sales returns this year with a yearling median of 17000 guineas. Anyone thinking of using him in 2020, will have to hope that the better mares he covered since 2017 will translate into track success. I’m not so convinced. He stood for €7000 in 2017 after his breakthrough season. I don’t understand why he is now worth €12,000 with little of note in the interim.

7. French Navy €4,000 (€4000) (2008 Shamardal ex First Fleet by Woodman)

Verdict: Overpriced

Had his first runners this season with a sprinkling of decent winners and there is hope that his progeny will improve with age. A likeable sort, French Navy managed 22 runs and 11 wins in a career that saw him running until he was 7. However, even at €4000 unless he gets a breakout horse he is going to be a very hard sell for the nominations team. His yearling median was an insulting 2350 guineas. Looking into my crystal ball, I see that if Casamento (another son of Shamardal) does ok as a jumps sire this fellow will follow him down that road.

8. Fulbright €4,000 (€4,000) (2009 Exceed and Excel ex Lindfield Belle by Fairy King)

Verdict: Overpriced

Like French Navy had his first runners in 2019. Unlike French Navy there was nothing of any quality and in terms of precocity much more would have been expected of Fulbright’s offspring. His median was 3000 guineas. I can’t think of any good reason to use him at any fee.

9. Night Of Thunder €25,000 (£15,000) (2011 Dubawi ex Forest Storm by Galileo)

Verdict: Unbelievably Good Value

Night of Thunder had an exceptional first season. That could turn out to be a statistical anomaly based on a small sample size but I don’t think so. A fee of €50,000 wouldn’t have seemed outrageous to me. It may be the case that his published fee is bit like those ‘limited special offers’ to get you in the door and they will try to sell you something else (because he is full) but hopefully they aren’t that cynical! I did a full review (probably reads like a love letter ) to Night of Thunder earlier this month and you can read that at http://www.montjeu.com/archives/903 . To summarise, I’m a big fan and if you can access him at €25,000 well that should make for a happy Christmas and New Year.