Hernando’s new heroine

There is always some aspect of a pedigree that can be used to explain why a horse won a particular race- after the event. Tipsters have a much more difficult job and yet they are regarded with far more suspicion than ‘expert’ bloodstock writers.  Most writers would wait until after the Derby and Oaks to provide pedigree reports on the winners.  Here at Montjeu.com we are putting our necks on the line and offering up this information two weeks in advance!

St Nicholas Abbey

The Derby is still at the mercy of St Nicholas Abbey. If he wins, he will become an incredible third son of Montjeu to triumph in the Racing Post Trophy and the Derby since 2005. His run in the 2000 Guineas, (6th beaten just over three lengths) was considered disappointing by many who had hoped to witness the first leg of a triple crown assault.  His price for Epsom lengthened and people seemed to write him off . However had he not been the even money favourite, with such a weight of expectation, then I think people would have considered it a a perfectly satisfactory run. Allied to the fact that so many of Aidan O’Brien’s horses come on considerably for their first run, I still see as by far the most likely winner at Epsom. For more detail on his pedigree, you can see this earlier post .

The Oaks

Oaks favourite Rumoush ~(Rahy- Sarayir by Mr Prospector) is a half sister to last years 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati from the remarkable Height of Fashion family. I don’t expect her to stay and from a betting perspective she is worth opposing. A similar stamina concern applies to Aviate (Dansili- Emplane by Irish River) and the third favourite Timepiece (Zamindar-Clepsydra by Sadler’s Wells) although she has better prospects of staying and is highly regarded by Henry Cecil has disappointed so far this season and she does not represent value.

Next in the betting is Akdarena and she is still available at around 14-1 on betfair. This is a a very good price for a filly who has improved with every run and was very impressive in the Blue Wind Stakes at Navan. The form received a boost of sorts when the 7 length runner-up Indiana Gal subsequently ran well to be second to Shamwari Lodge on 2000 Guineas day.  Jim Bolger made his reputation as a trainer of fillies and he previously won the Oaks with Jet Ski Lady (whom I fondly remember backing at 50-1).

Akdarena’s Pedigree

Hernando a top-class but underrated sire

Akdarena is a daughter of Hernando.  Hernando’s published fee at Lanwades is £12000 and in my view he is the best sire standing for under £15000 in the UK or Ireland. He is now 20 years of age, so he doesn’t have many more years left and breeders should use him while they still can. He is a proven classic sire, who imbues stamina and he has consistently delivered a very good ratio of winners to runners. In addition, although he is a great-grandson of Northern Dancer his fillies can be crossed with most of the Danzig and Sadler’s Wells line stallions that dominate the European stallion scene. He already has an Oaks winner in Look Here (Hernando-Last Look by Rainbow Quest). In addition he has sired a Derby 3rd in Casual Conquest (Hernando- Lady Luck by Kris), a Derby 4th in Mr Combustible (Hernando- Warg by Dancing Brave ) and he is broodmare sire of a Derby runner-up in Dragon Dancer (Sadler’s Wells- Alakananda by Hernando) so he has had plenty of success at Epsom. In addition he has 2 French Derby Winners in Sulamani and Holding Court.  Hernando’s offspring improve with age and this is not surprising since he himself was unraced at two before winning the Prix Lupin and French Derby and three and running well to be second in the Irish Derby. He maintained a high level of form for the next two seasons His final career stats saw him credited with a runner-up spot in the Arc and his soundness was obvious from the fact that he competed in 13 Group 1 contests for his trainers Francois Boutin and John Hammond (who took over when Boutin retired).

Akdariya

Akdarena’s dam Akdariya was a useful filly for John Oxx. She ran only five times winning once, but her merit can be gauged from the fact that she ran in and was runner-up (albeit well beaten by Yashmak) in the Ribbesdale Stakes. She was a daughter of noted broodmare sire Shirley Heights out of Akishka.  Akishka produced two other stakes winners in Akhiyar (8 furlong listed winner) and Akbar (Group 2 winner of the Henry II stakes over 2 miles). Both of these winners were by Doyoun who like Shirley Heights was by Mill Reef. It is also worth noting that Hernando has sired group winner Asian Heights and Listed winners Portal and La Hernanda out of daughters of Shirley Heights.

Akdarena’s pedigree comes alive when we look at her third dam Akiyda. She gained her place in history by winning the 1982 Prix de l’Arc from Ardross and Awaasif. In addition she was runner in the Vermeille and the French Oaks. She was a daughter of the Busted horse Labus and she represented an early return on the Aga Khans purchase of the Boussac bloodstock. She was also a half sister to French Derby winner Acamas (by Mill Reef) so that is another reason why the family returned to Mill Reef line stallions.

Conclusion:

Akdarena is almost guaranteed to stay the 12 furlongs of the Oaks. She is by a sire who is potent classic sire and her female family has some very classy antecedents. At the currently available odds she is a fair bet for Epsom glory. Regardless of the outcome of that race she is another reminder of the merits of Hernando as a top class and great value sire.

AKDARENA (GB) 2007 f b

Hernando
(FR) 1990
Niniski
(USA) 1976
Nijinsky
(CAN) 1967
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Flaming
Page (USA) 1959
Virginia
Hills (USA) 1971
Tom
Rolfe (USA) 1962
Ridin’
Easy (USA) 1967
Whakilyric
(USA) 1984
Miswaki
(USA) 1978
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Hopespringseternal
(USA) 1971
Lyrism
(USA) 1979
Lyphard
(USA) 1969
Pass
A Glance (USA) 1971
Akdariya
(IRE) 1994
Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975
Mill
Reef (USA) 1968
Never
Bend (USA) 1960
Milan
Mill (USA) 1962
Hardiemma
(GB) 1969
Hardicanute
(GB) 1962
Grand
Cross (GB) 1952
Akishka
(IRE) 1986
Nishapour
(FR) 1975
Zeddaan
(GB) 1965
Alama
(IRE) 1969
Akiyda
(GB) 1979
Labus
(FR) 1971
Licata
(FR) 1969

Lope de Vega- something to write about

Lope de Vega was a celebrated Spanish writer, ranked almost the equal of Cervantes and the author of an incredible 1800 plays (thanks Wikipedia). Last weekend’s French Guineas (Poule d’Essai des Poulains) saw another Lope de Vega defeat Dick Turpin by half a length.  The equine Lope is unlikely to achieve evarlasting fame but on a line through Dick Turpin there is currently little between him and Makfi at the top of the European rankings for milers.

Lope de Vega- performance to date

Lope de Vega was a very useful two year old winning his first two starts before winding up his season with a close fourth behind Siyouni in the Grand Criterium. He was third, beaten only half a length on his seasonal reappearance in the Prix de Fontainbleu before his half length success in the Poule D’Essai des Poulains.  In the aftermath of his victory it was stated that he would be aimed at the 10 furlongs of the French Derby. On pedigree, he should have a reasonable chance of getting the additional two furlongs.

Lope de Vega- bred for the French Guineas

In some respects Lope de Vega was bred for the French Guineas. His sire Shamardal won the race in 2005 and his broodmare sire Vettori won the 1995 edition of the race. In addition his grandam Lady Golconda is a daughter of Kendor who won the 1989 renewal.  Furthermore Rahy is the broodmare sire of Giants Causway and Rahy is a son of Blushing Groom the winner of the 1977 renewal.

Shamardal’s racing career

Shamardal was unbeaten on turf, winning the Dewhurst at two for Mark Johnston, before winning the French Guineas (from the luckless Indesatchel ridden by Jamie (Frank) Spencer) at three. He followed up in the first 10 furlong French Derby defeating the fast finishing Hurricane Run.  In the case of both French classics he benefitted from canny rides from Frankie Dettori.  Just 9 days after the French Derby he contested the St James Palace Stakes and he put up an extremely impressive performance that marked him out as an outstanding performer. Unfortunatley it proved to be his last race.

Shamardal’s life story was certainly interesting as he was diagnosed as a wobbler, his first owner Abdulla Buhaleeba sold him at the end of his two year old career after reputedly incurring significant casino losses. He was by Coolmores Giant’s Causeway out of a sister to Godolphins Street Cry, but Coolmore passed him over at the Houghton Sales after failing an endoscopic test. He was the star of Giant’s Causeway’s first crop that also featured Footstepsinthesand and Karen’s Caper.

Shamardal’s stud career

Shamardal’s first crop 143 was conceived off a fee of €40,000. From that crop Arctic was a group 3 winner in Ireland before disappointing somewhat in the Middle Park stakes. Shakespearean won the Solario Stakes and followed up in the Goffs million.  As three year olds Siyaadah won the UAE 1000 Guineas and Zazou won a German Group 3 before coming a close sixth behind Lope de Vega in the Franch Guineas.  From his time in Australia he is represented by Faint Perfume who is a dual Group 1 winner including the Crown Oaks over 12 and half furlongs. He is currently listed as €20000 and should be popular at that price as he is delivering plenty of stakes horses.

Lady Vettori

Lady Vettori, the dam of Lope de Vega won  her first five races as a two year old including the Group 3 Prix du Calvados. She finished her season with a highly creditable third in the Prix Marcel Boussac. She ran just once at three when just touched off in the Prix Imprudence. At stud she had four foals prior to Lope de Vega, the best of whom was Bal de la Rose (by Cadeuax Genereux) who was a 10 furlong Group 3 winner. Lady Vettori is herself a half sister to a stakes performer in Rosey de Megeve (by Efisio) and there are some decent connections further back in the pedigree. However, overall it is not a particularly high class family and it was her racing merit not her pedigree that saw Lady Vettori sold for €500,000 in December 2005.

Conclusion.

His run in the French Guineas represented a career best performance for Lope de Vega. His manner of victory was not overly impressive and he will probably need to show further improvement if he is to succeed in his stated target of the French Derby.  He is a nice advert for his sire Shamardal who is one of the leading lights of a bunch of highly promising new sires to burst on the scene. His dam Lady Vettori owned a modest enough pedigree but she was a superior racehorse and she can certainly take her share of the credit for her sons success.  Machiavellian appears 3*3 in the pedigree as broodmare sire of Shamardal and sire of Vettori but rather than reading too much into that I think we can just credit the combination of a much better than average sire and dam.

LOPE DE VEGA (IRE) 2007 c ch

Shamardal
(USA) 2002
Giant’s
Causeway (USA) 1997
Storm
Cat (USA) 1983
Storm
Bird (USA) 1978
Terlingua
(USA) 1976
Mariah’s
Storm (USA) 1991
Rahy
(USA) 1985
Immense
(USA) 1979
Helsinki
(GB) 1993
Machiavellian
(USA) 1987
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Coup
De Folie (USA) 1982
Helen
Street (GB) 1982
Troy
(GB) 1976
Waterway
(FR) 1976
Lady
Vettori (GB) 1997
Vettori
(IRE) 1992
Machiavellian
(USA) 1987
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Coup
De Folie (USA) 1982
Air
Distingue (USA) 1980
Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Euryanthe
(USA) 1975
Lady
Golconda (FR) 1992
Kendor(FR) 1986 Kenmare
(FR) 1975
Belle
Mecene (FR) 1982
Lady
Sharp (FR) 1981
Sharpman
(IRE) 1976
Golondrina
(FR) 1970

A vintage crop?

When we think of races involving horses that became successful stallions, the standout event is the 1984 French Derby that famously saw Darshaan defeat Sadler’s Wells and Rainbow Quest.  The 1996 July Cup won by Anabaa, had Danehill Dancer and Pivotal back in fifth and sixth places.  It is early days yet, but we might soon be adding races from the 2005 season to the above list as the likes of Dubawi, Shamardal,  Oratorio, Motivator and Footstepsinthesand were all in their classic year, whilst Azamour was enjoying a very successful four year old season. Arakan never competed against the aforementioned horses but he is also enjoying a good start with his first three year olds.

The above thoughts are prompted by the results of the French 2000 Guineas which resulted in a 1-2-3 for second season sires with Lope de Vega (by Shamardal), defeating Dick Turpin (Arakan ex Merrily by Sharood) and Shamalgan (Footstepsinthesand ex Genevale by Unfuwain). Following on from the classic successes of Dubawi’s offspring Makfi and Worthadd and some promising results for Azamour and Oratorio, it looks as if we have an unusually large number of promising sires coming on stream at once. It is much too early to be dogmatic about any of these sires but we can make some reasonable assumptions.

1. Arakan is the least likely to succeed. In one sense he has already surpassed expectations and he has sired a horse (Dick Turpin) of superior racing merit to himself. Arakan never won above Group 3 level despite being kept in training until the age of five, and as a son of Nureyev (who many regard with suspicion as a sire of sires) he didn’t immediately appeal as a likely sire success. The challenge will be to remain above the radar for the next few years until he can hopefully capitalise on the success of Dick Turpin.

2. Motivator has been plagued by bad luck. Injury restricted his first crop size and he has now missed the 2010 breeding season.  He had some promising two year olds last year notably Pollenator and Prompter and he seems capable of getting a decent horse but in a fickle market place he needs a big horse to appear quickly.

3. Azamour seems the best source of quality stamina at this stage. Despite being a son of Night Shift who sired more than his fair share of sprinters the early signs are that Azamours progeny will stay as well as he did himself. To date he has sired two Derby trial winners in Azmeel and Puncher Clynch. Eleanora Duse also ran well when a close third in the Musidora Stakes.

4.  Darley are currently outscoring Coolmore amongst the younger brigade.  The achievements to date of Dubawi outrank those of any of the other sires listed. Shamardal has also achieved more than  Coolmore’s Oratorio or Footstepsinthesand.  Coolmore will be hoping that Steinbeck can be the big horse that Footstepsinthesand needs, whereas Oratorio looks as if he has a good spread of possible top horses with Lolly for Dolly being a contender for the Irish Guineas and Fencing Master and Beethoven could add to last years achievements.  I doubt if they are panicking in Tipperary but it does seem to be a few years since they have added a real star to their roster.

A strange sequence of events-1000, 2000, 2010 Guineas

Our friends in the States may not agree, but they have their classic programme in the wrong order. Having the Kentucky Derby as the opening classic is like having your main course first.  In Europe, we have the Guineas for starters, building up to the main course of the Derby and then we allow plenty of time for digestion, before the dessert of the St Leger.  This years Guineas weekend belonged to the masters of fine dining, the French.

The 2000 Guineas- Derby pointers

The hope and hype from Ballydoyle was that St Nicholas Abbey would continue his unbeaten run and ultimately become the first triple crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970. Alas for his followers, the wait for a son of Montjeu who can excel over a mile will continue. However, unlike everything I’ve read elsewhere I thought he ran a perfectly satisfactory Derby prep and I think that the 4-1 now available for Epsom is good value. In fact, if he had won the Guineas I would have been a little more concerned about his chances at Epsom as then there would have been a doubt that he was not a ‘typical Montjeu’ who excelled over middle distances.

Makfi- history to date

The Guineas was won well by Makfi a son of Dubawi about whom we wrote in detail in a recent post. Amazingly in the Autumn he was sold from Marcus Tregoning’s yard and put in the October horses in training sale where he fetched 26000 guineas. This is now proven to be an extraordinarily bad piece of business on the part of Sheikh Hamdens team. At a future date I will compile a list of the worst culling decisions in memory and Makfi is sure of a place near the top. He won his maiden in November at Fontainbleu before starting this season with an easy victory in the traditional French Guineas trial, the Prix Djebel. In hindsight his starting price of 33-1 was very generous and was due to a lack of punter familiarity with his young trainer Mikel Dezangles, a lack of respect for the French form and the distorted market due to the gamble on St Nicholas Abbey.

Makfi-pedigree

Makfi’s pedigree is top class. His dam Dhelaal was an unraced daughter of Green Desert.  Dhelaal is however a half sister to champion two year old Alhaarth (by Unfuwain) who has a Guineas connection as the sire of 2004 winner Haafhd. Makfi is her first foal and he was followed by a filly by Nayef. Interestingly Nayef is a half brother to Unfuwain.  Makfi’s granddam Irish Valley also produced 7 other winners apart from Alhaarth including French Group 3 winner Green Pola (by Nijinsky). Her unraced daughter Dalayil (by Sadler’s Wells) is the dam of Derby third Aqaleem (by Sinndar) who recently died having been sold to Australia in the hope of winning a Melbourne Cup. Coincidentally Aqaleem was trained in England by Marcus Tregoning and he was third in the Derby to Authorized (by Montjeu ex Funsie by Saumurez) and Green Valley the third dam of Makfi is also the third dam of Authorized. Green Valley is most commonly found throughout pedigrees as the dam of Green Dancer (by Nijinsky) who won the Observer Gold Cup (now the Racing Post Trophy) and the French Guineas before becoming one of the best sire sons of Nijinsky. Green Valley has the enviable record of having 13 winners from her 14 foals and she herself is a daughter of Sly Pola who was a flying two year old who won the Prix de l’Abbaye. This is a family that keeps producing high quality performers and Makfi has certainly upheld the family tradition.

Dubawi is doing everything right as a stallion.  Makfi is his second classic winner in recent weeks as Worthadd (x Wigman by Rahy) won the Group 3 Italian Guineas and he has prospects of further classic success with recent Group 3 winner Anna Salai ( x Anna Palariva by Caerleon) in the French 1000 Guineas.

The 1000 Guineas

This years 1000 Guineas was full of controversy. There was a very significant draw bias which meant most of the field were at a huge disadvantage.  First past the post was Jacqueline Quest (by Rock of Gibraltar ex Coquette Rouge by Croco Rouge), however Tom Queally’s mount was deemed to have interfered with Special Duty (Hennessy x Quest to Peak by Distant View) and the placings were altered. Again, for those who like coincidences, Jacqueline Quest’s sire Rock of Gibraltar benefitted from Hawk Wing’s poor draw (and rider)when he won the 2002 running of the 2000 Guineas and Special Duty ‘s granddam Viviana is a daughter of the last English Guineas winner to be disqualified, Nureyev. Furthermore Special Duty’s owner, Khalid Abdullah also owned Known Fact who was awarded the race on the disqualification of Nureyev.

 I wrote about Special Duty’s pedigree and her chances in the Guineas after she won the Cheveley Park (see paragraph Special Duty- Omens are good) and oddly enough I also devoted a recent posting to controversial stewards decisions of which this Guineas will probably be added, although I feel the stewards today made the correct decision.

Channel 4’s coverage

Finally it might be worth noting  Channel 4’s television coverage of the stewards enquiry. John Francome got it spectacularly wrong with his repeated assertions that there was no way the result would be changed. Then during an interview with Jaqueline Quest’s owner Noel Martin, the presenter (Mike Cattermole, I think) was told that the horse was called after Mr Martin’s wife. The presenter then asked if his wife was at the races and he was told that “she died some years ago and is buried in my back garden”. An emotional owner then outlined some details of his extraordinary and often tragic recent past and mentioned how his life had been worsened by Channel 4 who made what he felt to be an unfair documentary about him.  When the revised result was announced the camera zoomed in on a distraught Mr Martin. This was car-crash television from Channel 4.

MAKFI (GB) 2007 c b

Dubawi
(IRE) 2002
Dubai
Millennium (GB) 1996
Seeking
The Gold (USA) 1985
Mr
Prospector (USA) 1970
Con
Game (USA) 1974
Colorado
Dancer (IRE) 1986
Shareef
Dancer (USA) 1980
Fall
Aspen (USA) 1976
Zomaradah
(GB) 1995
Deploy
(GB) 1987
Shirley
Heights (GB) 1975
Slightly
Dangerous (USA) 1979
Jawaher
(IRE) 1989
Dancing
Brave (USA) 1983
High
Tern (IRE) 1982
Dhelaal
(GB) 2002
Green
Desert (USA) 1983
Danzig
(USA) 1977
Northern
Dancer (CAN) 1961
Pas
De Nom (USA) 1968
Foreign
Courier (USA) 1979
Sir
Ivor (USA) 1965
Courtly
Dee (USA) 1968
Irish
Valley (USA) 1982
Irish
River (FR) 1976
Riverman
(USA) 1969
Irish
Star (FR) 1960
Green
Valley (USA) 1967
Val
De Loir (FR) 1959
Sly
Pola (USA) 1957